Bitwise predicts 50% odds of spot ETH ETF approval, $88k BTC by year end

Bitwise researcher Ryan Rasmussen believes there is a 50% chance that spot Ethereum ETFs will gain approval in the coming months.

Rasmussen shared his insights on the odds during a Feb. 26 interview with Yahoo Finance. He said:

“I certainly don’t know if the market is necessarily at a point that the SEC would like to see in order to approve those spot [Ethereum] ETFs this May. I think it’s about a 50/50 percent chance that we’ll see approval or we’ll see rejection and kick it out to another … round of applications in the future.”

Other sources, including Bitwise Global Head of Research Matt Hougan, previously predicted close to 50% odds that spot ETH ETFs will gain approval in May. Meanwhile, the odds for approval are slightly lower on the Polymarket website at 41%.

The SEC has to decide on VanEck’s spot Ethereum ETF application by the May 23 deadline and is expected to decide on the other applications simultaneously as it did with the spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Rasmussen also discussed that the US SEC did not approve Bitcoin ETFs until Grayscale initiated a lawsuit concerning dismissing its application. He added that it is uncertain whether a similar lawsuit might be necessary for ETH ETFs.

Furthermore, it is unclear whether any applicant could file a lawsuit at this stage of the process.

Bitwise believes ETFs will drive prices upward

Bitwise does not currently have a pending spot Ethereum ETF application but was one of several applicants that gained approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF in January.

Rasmussen noted that Bitwise is “tremendously happy” with the success of Bitcoin ETFs. He said that the firm has seen $1 billion in assets flow into its own Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and that the ETFs have collectively seen more than $15 billion in asset flow.

Rasmussen also predicted that spot Bitcoin ETFs and other funds will drive up crypto prices as previously “sidelined” institutional investors buy in. He said:

“When we have that kind of demand shock coming into the market, I think it’s no surprise that we’ve seen the price of Bitcoin rise … I think it will be the same for Ethereum or other assets if there were other ETFs to come to markets.”

Rasmussen also described other events impacting the crypto market, including Bitcoin’s upcoming halving, Ethereum’s upcoming Dencun upgrade, NFT trading volumes, and Solana’s price growth.

He suggested that crypto is “rising from the ashes” of the weak 2022 market and is entering a multi-year bull cycle. Rasmussen concluded by restating Bitwise’s earlier price predictions and said that the flagship crypto is still on track to reach a new all-time high of at least $88,000 by the end of 2024.