Seeing Bitcoin’s price rally as Donald Trump takes the lead on the world’s largest prediction market, Polymarket, made me do some research on what Polymarket is and who uses it.
And now I have to say — I believe that Polymarket leans pro-Trump. We need to account for that bias, and here’s why.
Let’s look at some data. Polymarket shows Trump surging to a massive 28% lead over Harris. Another prediction marketplace, Kalshi, also shows Trump leading by 18%. Meanwhile, most other polls have a tight race. This huge skew makes no sense – unless Polymarket’s user base is disproportionately pro-Trump.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Pro-#Bitcoin Donald Trump takes the biggest lead in the election so far, up by 28.8% in the odds: Polymarket pic.twitter.com/0m1FOG2pNL
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) October 22, 2024
Which it is. Polymarket only allows crypto betting and blocks US users. This filters its audience toward offshore Bitcoin and crypto enthusiasts or US crypto users who use VPNs, and studies show that crypto users tend to lean conservative.
And with Trump pledging to Implement crypto-friendly policies, he is a no-brainer for Bitcoin and crypto users.
Some add that Trump’s bets are part of “a coordinated effort to change the perception of this race.”
This may also be the case, but it should be clear that Polymarket polls are biased.
Does this make Polymarket corrupt? I don’t think so. It offers insightful predictive data and it’s a free market platform where anyone can bid if they think otherwise. Which makes it one of the best tools to know the market sentiment.
But anything showing Trump or Harris with a massive lead at this point in the election should warrant scepticism. Traders can recognise and exploit this bias. I’d look to buy Harris, anticipating the race tightening as election day nears. Polymarket odds should normalise closer to even odds.
In summary, Polymarket caters to Trump-friendly Bitcoin and crypto crowds, which distorts its election odds substantially compared to other polls. Knowing this, some people can capitalise accordingly.
This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
