Crypto Has ‘Already Won’, Regardless Trump Or Harris: Bitwise

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, declared in an investor note today that the crypto industry has secured its place in the financial world, irrespective of the outcome of today’s US presidential election between President Donald Trump and Senator Kamala Harris. In his note titled “Crypto Has Already Won,” Hougan stated, “There is nothing left to say about Tuesday’s election.”

He provided a succinct assessment for investors: “Short-term, a Trump victory is better than a Harris victory. Long-term, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins will thrive regardless of who wins. Altcoins have more regulatory risk in a Harris regime than a Trump regime.” Hougan cautioned that the only unfavorable scenario for crypto would be a Democratic sweep. “It would embolden the fringe element of the Democratic Party that is overtly hostile to crypto. But even in that scenario, I’d buy the dip,” he wrote.

Reflecting on the industry’s resilience over the past four years, Hougan emphasized, “If there’s one thing the past four years has taught me, it’s this: Washington can’t stop crypto. It can alter the trajectory. It can speed things up or slow things down. It can bring more confusion or new clarity. But it can’t stop it.”

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According to the Bitwise CIO, the presidential election serves as a milestone to evaluate the crypto sector’s growth since November 2020. Despite a combative regulatory environment—including “Operation Choke Point 2.0,” numerous SEC lawsuits, and a host of contradictory or ambiguous statements—the progress made is remarkable. Hougan noted, “We focus so much in crypto on the moment-by-moment movement of prices that we often lose sight of the long-term trends. The presidential election provides a nice opportunity to step back and see how far we’ve come.”

‘Crypto Has Already Won’

He presented compelling statistics comparing November 2020 to November 2024. Bitcoin’s price increased from $13,677 to $69,492, a 408% rise. Ethereum went from $388 to $2,492, marking a 552% increase. Solana experienced a meteoric rise from $1.49 to $165.12, an increase of 10,982%.

In terms of trading volume, the CME Bitcoin Futures Open Interest in October surged from $0.57 billion to $10.58 billion, a 1,756% increase. The seven-day moving average of crypto daily exchange volume expanded from $9.68 billion to $39.32 billion, a 306% increase. Decentralized exchange volume in October soared from $12.6 billion to $156.5 billion, reflecting an 11,142% increase.

Assets under management also saw significant growth. The Bitcoin spot ETF assets under management, nonexistent in November 2020, reached $71.46 billion by November 2024. Stablecoin assets under management dramatically increased from $3.87 billion to $177.83 billion, a 4,495% rise. The total value locked in decentralized finance platforms increased from $9.57 billion to $139.3 billion, a growth of 1,356%.

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Network activity showed substantial increases as well. Monthly transactions on the Bitcoin network grew from 9.28 million to 20.48 million, a 121% increase. Monthly transactions considering Ethereum and Layer 2 solutions saw a massive rise from 33.3 million to 385.8 million, a 1,059% increase.

Mainstream adoption indicators also highlighted crypto’s integration into traditional finance and politics. The number of top 20 asset managers with tokenized funds increased from none in 2020 to three in 2024. BlackRock’s adoption of Bitcoin and Ethereum, nonexistent in 2020, is one of the biggest stories in 2024.

Because of all that, Hougan expressed strong confidence in the continuation of these positive trends. “The question to ask yourself as you look at the above statistics is whether they will continue. From my seat, the answer is a resounding yes,” he affirmed.

He outlined several key expectations: spot crypto ETF inflows will continue; stablecoins will continue to grow rapidly; institutions will continue to ‘get off zero’ and add allocations to Bitcoin and crypto; Wall Street will continue to embrace tokenization and real-world assets; blockchains will continue to get faster and cheaper; and real-world applications like Polymarket will continue to break through and gain mainstream adoption.

While acknowledging the election’s significance, Hougan minimized its long-term impact on Bitcoin’s and crypto’s trajectory. “Make no mistake: What happens in Tuesday’s election matters, particularly in the short term. But as I see it, over the long term, Tuesday will prove to be something between a speed bump and a wind gust. Neither is going to stop this train,” he concluded.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $68,932.

Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com