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Dogecoin could see its first meaningful turn higher around September 13, according to crypto analyst VisionPulsed, who argues the current drawdown fits a post-halving template in which markets remain weak until roughly 510–511 days after Bitcoin’s supply cut before staging a final run. In a video published on September 1, he told viewers, “I would argue starting around September 13th, the selling may subside… 511 days post halving last cycle, we were already going back up. 511 days post halving the cycle before that we were already going back up.”
Dogecoin Pain May End September 13
The analyst frames the present weakness as part of a longer, slower cycle characterized by extended ranges rather than deeper collapses. “Unfortunately, we’re still going down,” he said, adding that in this cycle “the corrections have been longer… every time we go sideways, it’s forever.” He points to historical windows of September weakness—citing September 2–26 in 2021 and a shorter November dip in 2017—as signposts that align, by coincidence or causality, with the post-halving rhythm he tracks.
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VisionPulsed’s timing call is backed by the liquidity gauge M2, which he contends continues to correlate with crypto leadership even as that leadership rotates between assets. “Some people are saying the M2 doesn’t work anymore. I would disagree,” he said. In his view, the indicator “followed Solana basically to the tee” in 2023, then tracked Bitcoin, and more recently has matched flows into Ethereum and BNB as Bitcoin dominance fades. “Let’s not pretend BNB is not going up with the liquidity,” he said, while conceding, “I’m not going to sit here telling you that I know exactly where the liquidity is going to go next… I don’t know.”
That leadership rotation, he argues, helps explain why some large-cap tokens lag. “Maybe our coins are not getting affected by the liquidity ’cause our coins are rubbish,” he said. He suggested that assets which already printed cycle-highs may see limited additional upside, extending the same logic to Bitcoin by arguing its ultimate peak may be closer than many expect: “Maybe it’s $140,000. Maybe it’s $130,000. It’s not going to $200,000.” He also claimed that XRP’s structure shows prior all-time highs on his charts, adding that it has not been participating in the latest liquidity impulse.
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For Dogecoin specifically, the analyst’s base case is that it remains down the market-cap leaderboard and has yet to benefit from the liquidity rotation that favored Bitcoin first, then Ethereum and BNB, with “slight” spillover to Solana. He cautioned that a broader “altseason” remains contingent on traditional risk appetite, pointing to the Russell 2000’s inability to break to new highs.
“Until we have that present, I really wouldn’t be looking for an alt season,” he said, quantifying the lag between prior halvings and a confirmed small-cap equities breakout as roughly 18 days, then 123 days, then 190 days—versus more than 480 days without such a breakout in the current cycle. “Yes, this is the worst market cycle to date,” he said. “There’s no question. But that doesn’t mean it has to not happen. It just might be taking longer than we might have wanted it to.”
While he pins September 13 as the earliest window for relief, VisionPulsed warned that the subsequent liquidity setup is noisier. He highlighted a zone from roughly September 14 to October 24 in which his M2 gauge tends to get “wonky,” noting that previous instances still allowed for a final all-time-high push even as the underlying measure wavered.
“Will we go up for a top or will we just be bearish forever and ever? We’re going to find out together,” he said. For now, he concluded, “we are still bearish as of now,” emphasizing that the thesis is probabilistic and time-dependent rather than a guarantee.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.21.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
