Bitcoin price has extended its losses, dipping to lows of $105,200 today, following a volatile start to November and ending a remarkable seven-year “Uptober” streak.
After closing October with a 4% decline — the first negative October since 2018 — Bitcoin price faces increased selling pressure amid tighter financial conditions, cautious institutional flows, and macroeconomic headwinds.
The recent correction follows an early-October flash crash that dragged Bitcoin down to $104,000, wiping out much of its Q3 momentum. Despite a partial recovery, BTC remains roughly 14% below its recent peak near $125,000.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is at $106,234.
Bitcoin price analysis
Technical charts reveal that Bitcoin recently tested three support lows before sweeping liquidity beneath them.
On the daily timeframe, BTC held a key low within a demand area, which historically has been a strong support level. This zone previously trapped impatient sellers before a bounce, suggesting that BTC may once again find short-term support here.
Zooming into the 15-minute chart, a clean demand zone is forming where Bitcoin could react before making its next directional move, potentially targeting liquidity above current highs. Traders familiar with such setups note that markets often prepare for moves that leave panicking participants behind.
On-chain data offers further insight into Bitcoin’s current position. The Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, which represents the average cost basis for recent buyers, sits around $113,000.
Historically, this level has acted as a dynamic support zone, providing a foundation for accumulation and future upward moves.
Holding above this line signals that short-term participants are at breakeven or slight profit, bolstering market confidence.
The STH Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio also highlights potential upside. Multiplying the current STH Realized Price by historical MVRV thresholds projects resistance levels between $160,000 and $200,000, aligning with past cycle patterns.
Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV metrics reinforce this outlook, suggesting diminishing returns but potential peaks around $163,000–$165,000.
Rolling MVRV frameworks, including two-year and 100-day analyses, indicate that BTC is still in an accumulation-friendly range, capturing optimal points for entering the market ahead of the next bullish phase.
Bitcoin at $200,000 soon?
Earlier today, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee remained bullish on Bitcoin, predicting it could still surge to $150,000–$200,000 by the end of 2025 despite recent market turbulence.
He noted that the mid-October liquidation event — the largest in crypto history, even bigger than FTX — occurred just weeks ago.
Earlier today, Strategy announced they reinforced its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation approach, purchasing 397 BTC for about $45.6 million at an average price of $114,771 per BTC.
According to a November 3, 2025 SEC Form 8-K filing, Strategy now holds a total of 641,205 BTC, with an aggregate purchase cost of $47.49 billion and an average price of $74,057 per BTC, including fees and expenses.
