Bitcoin is showing early signs of renewed demand after a February stretch marked by heavy selling across both retail and institutional venues, even as the broader macro backdrop remains unsupportive for risk assets. On-chain and ETF flow data now point to a market that is stabilizing, though not yet fully out of danger.
That shift is notable because it is unfolding against a difficult backdrop. As CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost put it, “Despite escalating tensions in Iran, Bitcoin continues to show a degree of resilience, particularly compared to equities and commodities, which are increasingly displaying toppish market structures. This is all the more notable given that the upcoming FOMC meeting is unlikely to deliver any rate cuts.”
The market, in other words, is improving in spite of macro rather than because of it. Darkfost noted that current probabilities imply roughly a 99% chance of no change from the Federal Reserve, leaving traders focused less on an immediate policy move and more on forward guidance, especially whether officials reopen the door to future hikes.
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Within that setup, exchange flow data has started to look better. According to Darkfost, the 30-day moving average volume delta on Binance and Coinbase has shifted back toward buyers after plunging deeply negative in mid-February. On Feb. 16, the metric stood at -$145 million on Binance and -$88 million on Coinbase, a sign that “both retail and institutional participants were largely aligned on the sell side.” Today, those averages have moved back into positive territory at around +$21 million and +$14 million.
It is still a modest move. But compared with the conditions seen a month ago, it marks a clear change in tone.
Why $79,962 Remains The Key Resistance For Bitcoin
ETF flow data presented by CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. tells a similar story, though with an important caveat. Over the past month, US spot bitcoin ETF flows swung from capitulation to recovery. From Feb. 15 to 24, the 7-day average net flow remained negative, bottoming at -1,883 BTC per day on Feb. 18.
The reversal began on Feb. 25, when flows recovered to +2,305 BTC per day, before peaking at +3,387 BTC per day on March 2. The latest reading has cooled to +1,472 BTC per day, while total ETF holdings rose from 1,264,982 BTC to 1,291,618 BTC over the month, an increase of 26,636 BTC.
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Adler’s conclusion is constructive, but measured. “ETF flows recovered after February’s outflow, liquidity returned to positive territory — demand is back,” he wrote. “But until spot closes above the Realized Price (~$80K), the ETF cohort remains underwater, and this level will likely slow any rally.”
That realized price now sits at $79,962, down slightly from $80,501 on Feb. 15. Even after bitcoin rebounded from $63,756 on Feb. 24 to $74,788, spot still trades $5,174, or 6.5%, below the aggregate ETF cohort’s cost basis. That leaves a large pocket of holders in unrealized loss and creates the risk that any move toward $80,000 draws out supply from investors looking to exit near breakeven.
For now, both analysts are describing the same market: selling pressure has eased, buyer activity has returned, and institutional demand is no longer deteriorating. But confirmation still matters.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $74,063.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
