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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market will reach its peak in March this year before undergoing a steep correction.
In a Jan. 7 blog post, Hayes said his prediction is based on how he believes the US dollar liquidity environment will unfold in the first quarter of 2025, as Donald Trump prepares to enter the White House for his second term.
Arthur Hayes Says Other Sources Of Liquidity Will Offset Fed Quantitative Tightening
According to Hayes, US Dollar liquidity will continue to fuel optimism in the crypto market. However, he warned that recent changes in policy from the US Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department will likely influence BTC’s price trajectory in coming months.
Hayes believes the Federal Reserve will continue its quantitative tightening until the middle of the year at a pace of around $60 billion per month. Should this happen, it will reduce the overall liquidity in the financial system, according to the BitMEX founder. Hayes did, however, say that he is not too fazed by the potential strain on liquidity levels towards the middle of the year.
“Sasa” is an essay where I explain y I think #crypto tops out in mid-Mar and then severely corrects. Until then is time to dance. https://t.co/Apt124sOjp pic.twitter.com/LKQ24GMtpq
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) January 6, 2025
This is because he believes that other sources of liquidity will offset some of the concern. He added that the Treasury will likely inject liquidity into the market, if needed, through its General Treasury Account (TGA) by spending funds rather than issuing debt.
Collectively, Hayes forecasts a $612 billion injection into the US Dollar liquidity markets by the end of March this year.
Trump Bump Phase Could End After Q1 2025
With the possible Dollar liquidity crunch, Hayes believes that the Trump pump buzz will start to fade after the first quarter of 2025. He subsequently anticipates a broader and severe crypto market correction as both fiscal and monetary support start to wane.
There is also the upcoming tax season in mid-April that will likely contribute to the liquidity squeeze and knock investor sentiment, Hayes warned.
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