Recently, Project Eleven (a quantum computing research group) announced a 1 bitcoin reward for the first team able to complete a challenge to demonstrate breaking a ECC (elliptic curve cryptograph) key using Shor’s algorithm on a quantum computer.
The deadline for this challenge is April 5th, 2026, meaning in order to qualify for the prize a team must demonstrate breaking a key pair it must be done before that deadline.
This is frankly a completely absurd and meaningless prize for a number of reasons, the first of which is the deadline of just under a year from today. Even highly optimistic projections about the progress of quantum computing put the timeline of practically achieving such a goal at more like 5-10 years. Expecting a workable proof of concept demonstration that actually breaks a keypair in a single year is pretty laughable at face value, even if you do view quantum computing as a material threat in the short term.
Next is the factor of economic incentives. A single bitcoin is currently worth approximately $80,000. That is frankly not a lot of money in the grand scheme of things. Especially when it comes to the application of a cutting edge technology like quantum computing that can perform an entire class of computation exponentially faster than a classical computer. Imagine how much more valuable things could be done with a working quantum computer.
You could eavesdrop on internet connections regardless of TLS, breaking secure connections to banks, equity brokerages, private corporate networks not using post-quantum cryptography. You could break every private messenger application on the planet, you could decrypt any PGP encrypted message sent over email that you knew the public key for. You could break the entire DNS system’s certificate authority hierarchy, allowing you to impersonate any server in the world a user tries to connect to.
All of these things have immeasurable value beyond just a mere $84,000. Why on Earth would someone with a working quantum computer publicly reveal that fact to claim a single bitcoin when they could take advantage of all these other things they would be capable of doing?
Okay, let’s sweep all of those possibilities aside and pretend the entire world magically migrates to post-quantum cryptography aside from Bitcoin. It still makes no sense to try to publicly claim this prize if you have a functional quantum computer.
Let’s assume you have a barely performant enough quantum computer, that it takes a decent amount of time to crack a single key. How many bare public keys are there securing 50 BTC outputs from the first mining epoch? THOUSANDS of them. Why on Earth would you crack one, and then go tell everyone publicly to claim a single bitcoin? You would just try to crack as many of those early coinbase rewards as possible before people detected you.
Finally, the timetable on its own is just absurd. Quantum computers currently are not even capable of factoring prime numbers that people can do themselves in their heads mentally. In a single year the technology is going to jump from that to cracking Bitcoin keys? That’s absurd.
So what the hell is the point of this prize except some publicity stunt? It’s utterly meaningless as a serious bounty to function as a canary in the coalmine for us, no matter how concerned or unconcerned you are with the timeframes of quantum computers as a threat.
This bounty is a joke.
This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
