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Dogecoin is losing altitude after a month-long advance that climaxed at an intraday high of $0.259 on May 11 before momentum cracked. The memecoin is changing hands near $0.228 today, capitalising the network at roughly $34 billion and leaving it 69$ below its 2021 peak.
From a purely statistical angle, the retreat is modest: Dogecoin is still up about 35% from the early-May floor at $0.164, yet the pattern of lower highs that has emerged since mid-month has sharpened traders’ focus on whether the token’s April-to-May impulse was corrective rather than impulsive.
Dogecoin Price Crash Incoming?
Technical analyst More Crypto Online argues in his latest YouTube briefing that the structure of this advance “rallied in three waves like many other crypto charts into the Friday swing high,” lacked the five-wave punch normally required to sustain upside continuation, and has already reversed into what looks like “a micro five-wave move down.”
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The Elliottician stated: “Doge rallied in three waves like many other crypto charts into the Friday swing high,” he told viewers at the top of the clip, stressing that the advance from the April 26 trough “was just not convincing.”
The essence of his argument is that Dogecoin’s leap from $0.164 to the May 11 intraday peak at $0.259 never produced the five-wave structure that Elliott Wave theory associates with trend-sustaining moves.
Instead, price action has already begun what he counts as a “micro five-wave move down,” thereby signalling that the April–May rise likely formed only the B-wave of a larger A-B-C correction. “As soon as the price breaks below the red dotted line at $0.21, the scenario for a larger pullback in the yellow count becomes confirmed,” he said, adding that nothing on the chart currently invalidates that view.
The “yellow” scenario envisages an extended C-wave unfolding in five sub-waves and targeting the 38.2 %–78.6 % Fibonacci retracement cluster derived from the April rally. In plain numbers, that translates to $0.199–0.183 in the coming sessions.
“Testing $0.19.9 to $0.183 cents over the coming sessions seems like quite a probable outcome,” More Crypto Online said. “We already have a five-wave decline from yesterday’s high, so we have to be ready for potentially just corrective rallies and then a sharp decline in wave three.”
That roadmap leaves room for a brief recovery wave—he calls it wave 2 of C—to probe initial resistance at $0.23.3 to $0.24.7. Yet the analyst cautioned that any bounce should remain “only corrective” in character; a decisive hourly close above $0.247 cents would be needed to resurrect the bullish “orange” count, which allows for one final extension of the previous advance.
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“Any decisive break above $0.247 cents might mean we’re already in the extension to the upside,” he acknowledged, though he quickly added that such an outcome “would again be invalidated with a break below the dotted red line.”
Macro context is doing Dogecoin no favours. With Treasury yields pushing toward new quarterly highs and Fitcoin dominance creeping up, liquidity has drained from high-beta altcoins. Even January’s debut of the Grayscale Dogecoin Trust, which helped funnel institutional money into the asset earlier this year, has not arrested the rotation out of fringe tokens during May’s risk-off stretch.
From a market-structure standpoint, the token’s immediate fate boils down to whether bulls can defend the $0.21 pivot called out in the analysis. A daily close beneath that threshold would give bears license to press toward $0.19, while a break of the $0.247-cent barrier is the only development the analyst concedes could “reduce the potential for that decline.”
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.228.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
