Bitcoin price was holding steady near the $120,000 mark today but recently slumped below that mark to $119,768. All this movement is after a volatile and bullish start to October.
Some analysts point to signs that the market has entered what many describe as the “euphoria phase” of the current bull cycle.
Bitcoin price surged more than 30% since the start of the year, buoyed by sustained inflows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, renewed investor confidence in digital assets, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will move toward cutting interest rates.
Bitcoin price briefly touched above $126,000 earlier this week — its highest ever — before easing slightly to the $120,000–$123,000 range over the last couple of days as traders digested macroeconomic and on-chain signals.
Bitcoin’s late-stage rally
Despite the pause, on-chain analysts suggest that the broader uptrend may be far from over. Data frameworks like the Bitcoin “Cycle Master” model indicate that the market is entering a late-stage rally, historically marked by sharp price acceleration followed by steep corrections.
The model divides bitcoin’s long-term price range into undervalued, fair value, and overvalued zones — and currently places the upper “overvalued” boundary around $260,000, with a more conservative cycle peak near $180,000.
The short-term holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio — a measure of how much profit recent investors are sitting on — reinforces that view. When this metric has historically approached 1.7, Bitcoin has neared its top before major pullbacks.
At current realized price levels, that ratio would correspond to a bitcoin price between $180,000 and $195,000, suggesting room for continued upside before euphoria turns into excess.
Economic conditions affecting Bitcoin
Meanwhile, macro conditions remain mixed. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting revealed that most officials still see scope for rate cuts later this year, even as inflation concerns linger.
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and stronger U.S. dollar have tempered some of the “debasement trade” narrative that previously fueled bitcoin’s rise alongside gold.
If the historical pattern holds, Bitcoin’s current euphoria phase may carry it toward the $180,000–$200,000 zone before sentiment shifts.
For now, with prices steady around $120,000 and volatility compressing, traders are watching closely for the next leg higher — and for clues about when exuberance might turn into excess.
