Wintermute, one of crypto’s largest market makers, struck an overtly risk-on tone in a Monday market update on X, arguing that a dovish macro turn and thawing US–China tensions have reset positioning and liquidity into a friendlier Q4 regime. In a post dated October 28, the firm wrote that “risk appetite is returning as softer CPI data and improving Trump-Xi relations lifted markets, with yields easing and volatility declining,” adding that “Bitcoin reclaimed $115k on ETF inflows and short squeezes, while DeFi and AI sectors led the recovery.”
Wintermute’s Bullish Crypto Outlook For Q4
The desk framed the impulse as both macro- and microstructure-driven. On the macro side, Wintermute pointed to “a softer US CPI print (3.0% YoY vs 3.1% expected)” and “the announcement of a Trump-Xi summit in Seoul,” which it said catalyzed “a broad rebound across assets” as the S&P 500 gained 1.9%, the VIX hovered “around 16,” and Treasury yields eased with rate-cut odds firming into this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
On the crypto side, the update said “Bitcoin performed well with a 5.3% gain, climbing above $115k… amplified by $160m in short liquidations,” while “Ethereum tracked higher toward $4,200,” and “gold unwound nearly 7% from its highs, signaling a rotation from defensive assets into risk assets.”
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Wintermute characterized the advance as broadening beneath the surface. “DeFi and AI names led gains on strong protocol revenue prints and improving on-chain activity,” while “Utilities and Tooling benefited from infrastructure-related rotation as new L2 deployments and restaking primitives drew liquidity.”
Derivatives posture turned supportive, too: “On the perp side, funding rates turned positive again across most majors… though positioning remains far from crowded.” The firm also flagged a turn in base money for crypto beta: “Stablecoin supply is ticking higher for the first time since September, reinforcing that macro tailwinds are beginning to translate into fresh inflows.
Spot demand from US spot ETFs, according to Wintermute, continues to anchor the structure even as activity cooled. “US spot BTC ETFs absorbed moderate inflows through the week even as volumes thinned, underscoring sticky structural demand.” Meanwhile, derivatives leverage “is rebuilding at a measured pace after the early-month flush,” which the firm framed as healthier—“cleaner leverage and more balanced funding.”
The house view into November is unambiguously constructive and leans on seasonality and positioning. One passage distilled the stance: “While Uptober had a bit of a false start, macro tailwinds, cooling inflation, ‘stabilizing’ geopolitical tension and a dovish FED are setting the stage for a supportive rest of the year, which historically (Q4) has been the strongest for Bitcoin.”
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In its closing summary, Wintermute reiterated that “positioning is cleaner, volatility subdued, and capital rotation is gradually steering toward crypto. With liquidity conditions improving and sentiment stabilising, the setup into Q4 remains constructive, favouring further risk-on continuation.”
A Decisive Week For Crypto
The note drew immediate amplification from market commentators. DeFi analyst Ignas compressed the message into a trading takeaway: “Wintermute is telling you to max bid,” citing “yields… easing, volatility… down, and BTC reclaimed 115k helped by ETF inflows and short squeezes.” He highlighted Wintermute’s own line that “macro tailwinds, cooling inflation, ‘stabilizing’ geopolitical tension and a dovish FED are setting the stage for a supportive rest of the year.”
Whether this marks an outright regime shift or a tactically favorable window will hinge on this week’s event risk—namely the Fed decision and any concrete outcomes from the Trump–Xi engagement.
Wintermute, however, is explicit about the current state of play: markets are “rotating back into risk” with “cleaner positioning” and “calmer volatility,” Bitcoin “has reclaimed early-October losses with steady ETF inflows,” and sector leadership in DeFi and AI is consistent with an early-risk rotation. “With cleaner positioning, calmer volatility, and better macro visibility, the setup into November looks healthy for further recovery and rotation across crypto,” the firm concluded.
At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.78 trillion.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
