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Polymarket traders are taking a cautious view on Bitcoin’s price prospects this year, even as many analysts expect a stronger bull run in 2026.
On Polymarket, the odds of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 this year stand at just 21%. Confidence drops as price targets rise. Traders give BTC a 45% chance of hitting $120,000, 35% odds of reaching $130,000, and 28% odds of touching $140,000. The most likely outcome, according to the market, is Bitcoin reaching $100,000, which carries an 80% probability and is seen as the safest bet.
This caution may be linked to the fading influence of Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle. In the past, Bitcoin followed a clear pattern around halving events, helping traders predict major price moves. However, BTC ended 2025 in the red, raising doubts about whether this cycle still works. With the old pattern breaking down, traders appear less confident about aggressive upside targets.
Rate Cut Hopes and Clear Rules Support Bitcoin Upside
Despite the bearish odds shown on Polymarket, many analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin’s outlook. Several expect 2026, rather than this year, to be the real bull year.
Macro factors could also support higher prices. US President Donald Trump is expected to appoint a new Federal Reserve chair soon, which has fueled expectations of interest rate cuts. Lower rates would likely benefit risk assets like Bitcoin. This expectation has already pushed gold and silver to new all-time highs, while crypto prices have remained mostly flat.
On the regulatory front, major US crypto bills such as the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act are expected to bring clearer rules. This could attract more institutional investors into the market.
Looking ahead, firms including Standard Chartered, Strategy, and Bernstein predict Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2026. More optimistic analysts, like Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, see BTC climbing as high as $200,000 to $250,000.
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