XRP is compressing on the weekly chart into a clearly defined post-breakout range, and analyst Maelius (@MaeliusCrypto)argues the next directional clue will come from the RSI, with a breakout “sometime in Q1” that he expects to coincide with higher prices and a push toward $10.
Maelius’ chart is a 1W XRP/USD view (Bitstamp) with a 50-week EMA overlaid. The market’s most recent regime shift is clear: a sharp vertical expansion carried XRP from a long base into a higher trading band, followed by a multi-week consolidation inside a shaded range.
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That range is anchored by two levels the chart emphasizes. The upper boundary aligns with the prior spike high near $3.33 (the 2018 peak), while the lower boundary sits just above $1.60. At the time of the screenshot, XRP is around $2.124 on the weekly close, placing price just below the 50-week EMA, the most immediate, high-visibility pivot in Maelius’ framing.
The Elliott labeling casts the current chop as a corrective wave 4 after the impulsive advance. The message is less “trend is broken” and more “trend is pausing.” Maelius added that his “conservative count assumes there is only 1W left,” implying a relatively tight window for the market to resolve the consolidation and transition into wave 5 if momentum confirms.
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The broader layout of the chart also invites a comparison to 2017: XRP’s first major run off a base, a long mid-cycle breather, and then a second, sharper leg into the ultimate high. In the comparison within the chart, XRP rallied roughly 7,400% in about three months in early 2017, consolidated from May through December, then surged again by roughly 1,500%.
Today’s sequencing is presented as similar in shape, if not necessarily in magnitude: a strong first leg from roughly November 2024 through January 2025 (roughly +500%), followed by a year-long consolidation into January 2026. In that read, the next major leg higher could be approaching, potentially shallower than the first, with wave 5 serving as the “second push” analogue.
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The lower panel is a weekly RSI with a descending trendline capping recent peaks. That red down-sloping line is Maelius’ timing trigger: “RSI breaks out sometime in Q1. Price goes higher.” The implication is straightforward. In his framework, momentum needs to break its own compression before price can sustain the next expansion phase.
Crucially, the chart also carries a higher-degree label that places the current wave 4 within a larger wave III, rather than portraying the next wave 5 as a terminal, cycle-ending move. That aligns with his response when asked whether $10 would be a quarterly “max”: “Sometime in Q1 we should get a breakout, not necessarily a top. Next wave should be towards 10$.”
If the thesis is working, XRP would be expected to reclaim the 50-week EMA and reassert acceptance back toward the range highs near $3.33, with the RSI trendline break acting as the confirmation event Maelius is watching. If it fails, continued rejection at the EMA and a breakdown through the range floor above $1.60 would keep the wave-4 corrective phase in play and delay the wave-5 path he’s mapped.
At press time, XRP traded at $2.37.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
