Ether’s (ETH) surge to $2,390 on Monday pushed its value above its realized price, implying that the average holder of ETH is now back in profit. But is this enough for the ETH bulls to reach $3,000?
Key takeaways:
- Ether holders are back in profit, increasing chances for more upside.
- Ether’s bull flag chart pattern is targeting $3,000.
- A big potential sell wall exists around $2,800, with 7.1 million ETH on the line.
Ether price rises above its cost basis
Data from TradingView shows that Ether’s price rose 21% to $2,340 on Monday from its local low of $1,940 reached on March 29.
This rally has seen ETH rise above its realized price, or the average cost basis of all moved ETH, currently at $2,320, according to data from Glassnode.
Related: Ethereum Foundation sells another 10,000 ETH to BitMine in third OTC deal
The average ETH holder returning to profit after unrealized losses provides meaningful financial relief for many holders, and perhaps a bullish outlook.
Historically, breaking above this level shifts market sentiment from fear to greed, reducing sell pressure from underwater holders. This often fuels bullish momentum, attracting new buyers and short squeezes.
The chart below shows that when the price reclaimed its realized price in May 2025 after trading below it for roughly two months, it went on to rally 173% to its $4,950 all-time high from $1,800. The gains were 58% after ETH/USD reclaimed its cost basis in early 2023.
Ethereum: Key pricing levels. Source: Glassnode
Therefore, holding above $2,300 is crucial for the bulls and for a potential retest at $3,000.
Analyst Dami-Defi said that a break above the $2,400-$2,600 would trigger the “most violent move of the year” toward $3,000.
“Once we break $2,400 we will catapult violently to $2,800 – $3,000.”
ETH/USD weekly chart. Source: X/Dami-Defi
As Cointelegraph reported, the ETH/USD pair must overcome resistance at $2,400 to confirm a trend change.
ETH price technical analysis: Bull flag targets $3,000
Ether’s price action has formed a bull flag chart pattern on the daily chart (see below). The price is retesting the $2,350 resistance, where the flag’s upper boundary and the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) converge.
A daily candlestick close above this level would open the way toward the measured target at $3,018, roughly 30% above the current price.
ETH/USD 12-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The daily relative strength index has increased to 56 from near oversold conditions at 36 in late March, suggesting that ETH bulls are returning to the market.
Trader and analyst Cohelson David said a broadening wedge pattern on the 12-hour chart projects an ETH price breakout toward $3,000.
ETH/USD 12-hour chart. Source: X/Cohelson David
However, Ether’s cost basis distribution data shows that investors hold about 7.1 million ETH at an average cost of between $2,750 and $2,850, creating a potential resistance zone.
This concentration suggests that many investors may sell at breakeven, potentially stalling Ether’s upward move.
Ethereum cost basis distribution chart. Source: Glassnode
