Bitcoin (BTC) may rally toward $96,000 by June as institutions absorb more than five times the daily mined BTC supply, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards.
BTC price averages 24% gains after institutional supply squeeze
In a Monday post, Edwards said institutions have been “slurping up 500%+ of Bitcoin’s daily mined supply.”
BTC/USD daily chart vs. institutional buying market cap. Source: Capriole Investments
Since the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin miners have produced roughly 450 BTC per day, keeping supply growth relatively stable, with its rate of change (ROC, the red line) hovering near 0.0022% as of Monday.
In contrast, institutional buying’s ROC (blue) stood near 0.0139%, showing demand momentum rising more than five times faster than new supply growth.
Renewed ETF inflows and steady BTC purchases by Michael Saylor’s Strategy have helped drive that demand. They added roughly 70,000 BTC in April, more than approximately 13,500 BTC mined during the same period.
US Spot Bitcoin ETF monthly net flows and Strategy’s BTC holding. Source: Glassnode, BitBo.IO
“Every time it’s been this high before, price has shot up over the next week,” said Edwards, adding:
“The average return in prior cases is +24% over the next 1 month from here, that would take us to around $96K.”
Edwards noted that when institutional absorption exceeds 500% of Bitcoin’s daily mined supply, BTC has historically delivered ~24% average gains over the following month, which would put the price around $96,000 by June.
Similar targets have also been shared by analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who said Bitcoin may “easily” reach $95,000, citing renewed demand for spot BTC ETFs and other technical factors.
Bitcoin sharks accumulate over 61,000 BTC in 30 days
Onchain data shows the supply squeeze extends beyond ETFs and corporate buyers.
Bitcoin “sharks,” entities that hold 100–1,000 BTC, have accumulated over 61,000 BTC in the past 30 days, according to data resource Glassnode.
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BTC shark net position change vs. price. Source: Glassnode
Smaller cohorts, including “fishes” holding 10–100 BTC and “crabs” holding 1–10 BTC, are also net accumulators during the same period.
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BTC fish and crab net position change vs. price. Source: Glassnode
The data shows that both mid-sized investors and retail participants are steadily absorbing supply, raising BTC’s odds of hitting $96,000 over the next few weeks if the demand persists.
Related: Strategy takes Bitcoin buying breather ahead of Q1 earnings report
Still, some analysts warrant caution, citing a prevailing bear flag setup.
In a Monday post, trader Bitbull highlighted $60,000–$62,000 as a potential downside target if BTC corrects from the flag’s upper trendline toward the lower trendline.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView/BitBull
A breakdown below the lower trendline may send the BTC price under $50,000.
