Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at investment manager VanEck, said he sees Bitcoin (BTC) reaching seven figures within the next five years.
“Bitcoin going up for us is the base case. We think this asset is going to reach a million dollars over the next several years,” Sigel said on CNBC’s Halftime Report on Wednesday.
Sigel later clarified that BTC is likely to reach that threshold in “half a decade,” comparing Bitcoin’s adoption to the video game industry’s, where usage has expanded across age groups after initially being limited to younger users.
“It’s going to be like the video game industry, where 30 years ago it was just kids playing video games, now Elon Musk plays video games,” he said.
Sigel’s latest projection aligns with VanEck’s base-case model, which estimates Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050, underscoring a longer-term bullish outlook despite periods of market volatility.
Bitcoin is a “mega trend,” but marked by volatility
Despite a highly bullish outlook, VanEck’s Sigel emphasized that Bitcoin is a “very cyclical asset,” saying its path toward $1 million would not be a steady upward move.
“There are no bailouts in Bitcoin, so it’s going to be cycles along the way,” Sigel said, hinting at the absence of a central authority to stabilize prices during market downturns.
Source: Matthew Sigel
“We have the first central bank buying Bitcoin for its reserves, so this is a mega trend, but it will be very volatile along the way,” Sigel added.
Near-term market positioning is negative
Addressing Bitcoin’s near-term price action, Sigel pointed to the asset’s correlation with the Nasdaq reaching its highest level in five years, suggesting the current rally is largely driven by broader macroeconomic trends.
“What keeps us encouraged even at the current levels is that we’re not seeing the froth in the derivatives markets,” he said, adding that the move appears to be driven primarily by short covering, indicating that overall positioning remains relatively bearish.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) all-time price chart. Source: CoinGecko
Sigel’s take joins several similar views on Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the coming years, including predictions from Bernstein, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, Jan3 CEO Samson Mow and Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, among others.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest’s 2030 Bitcoin price targets range from about $300,000 in a bear case to $710,000 in a base case and $1.5 million in a bull case, according to its Big Ideas 2025 model.
Related: Bitmine’s Tom Lee says ‘crypto spring’ has already begun
Some investors are more skeptical about Bitcoin’s adoption, though. Ray Dalio has said Bitcoin could act as a store of value but questioned its ability to scale into a global reserve asset amid regulatory and sovereign currency risks. Others, including gold advocate Peter Schiff, have argued Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value and is unlikely to displace traditional safe-haven assets like gold, casting doubt on seven-figure price forecasts.
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