Altcoins have spent years losing ground against Bitcoin, and that has made the phrase “altseason is dead” one of the easiest claims in crypto. However, a market structure shared by Cryptollica on X suggests the story may not be that simple.
The chart does not show strength yet, but it does show a familiar location where the alt dominance is currently positioned at a long-term bottom where previous rotations began.
Altcoin Dominance Returns To The Floor
Crypto analyst Cryptollica recently published a long-term look at altcoin dominance, specifically, the ratio of total market cap excluding the top 10 assets to Bitcoin. The chart stretches back to 2016 and points to two major alt rotation phases: the 2017 altseason and the 2021 altseason.
The important thing from the analysis is that altcoin dominance has not simply been collapsing in a straight line. It has been moving inside a rising channel since 2017. The upper side of that channel touched the 2018 cycle top and the 2021 cycle top, while the lower side has acted as a long-term floor during periods of alt underperformance in comparison to Bitcoin.
That compression is precisely where the market sits today. The current setup shows the ratio back near that lower boundary again. As shown in the chart below, the 2026 zone is another possible bottom, similar to the bottom that formed before the 2021 alt rotation. This is why the analysis challenges the idea that altcoins are dead.
The Confirmation Layer Alt Bulls Still Need
Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market is currently at 59.9%, according to CoinMarketCap, and the Altcoin Season Index is at 38, which is well below the 75 threshold that would formally confirm an altseason. The numbers look discouraging.
The move of an altseason will come from Bitcoin dominance rolling over. However, history shows that a stronger altcoin season argument needs more than a long-term floor on altcoin dominance. Two major confirmation signals came before the 2017 and 2021 rotations. The first confirmation signal was ETH/BTC bottoming before broader alt dominance. That first signal is not fully present yet.
The second signal was stablecoin liquidity growing as Bitcoin dominance began to fall. However, liquidity alone does not create altseason, as it needs direction to flow into. Hence, the current setup of the altseason is not that of a dead one but more of a waiting room than a confirmed breakout.
At the time of writing, the dominance index of altcoins excluding the top 10 altcoins is around 0.10 of Bitcoin’s market cap. The projection from crypto analyst Cryptollica sees the index breaking out and returning to the upper trendline. Such a move would put the total value of the altcoin market outside the top 10 anywhere between 0.6 and 0.8 of Bitcoin’s market cap.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
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