Bitcoin (BTC) could tumble by over 60% to under $24,000 in 2026, according to technical analyst Jesse Olson, if the stock market experiences a major crash.
Key takeaways:
- A US stock market crash of over 50% may accelerate BTC’s sell-off.
- Negative Coinbase premium and persistent ETF outflows hint at de-risking among institutional investors.
Bitcoin chart flags $23,980 worst-case downside target
In a Sunday post, Olson shared a two-week Bitcoin chart showing BTC potentially falling toward $23,980, based on a long-term volume-weighted support line from his proprietary Market Sniper Pro VWAP indicator.
BTC/USD two-week price chart. Source: TradingView/Jesse Olson
The yellow line on the chart represents a custom version of anchored volume-weighted average price (aVWAP), a tool traders use to track the average price of an asset, weighted by volume, from a specific starting point.
In Bitcoin’s case, Olson appears to have anchored the line from the 2022 bear market bottom, allowing it to slope forward as a potential long-term support zone.
Olson presented the $23,980 level as his base-case Bitcoin forecast in a severe macro sell-off, wherein the stock market drops by over 50%. The type of stress Olson warns about is already being flagged by veteran market observers.
For instance, GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham has called the ongoing AI market boom a major speculative bubble. While Michael Burry has compared the current rally to the final stages of the Dot-com mania.
Related: Arthur Hayes dumps HYPE, NEAR as he warns of AI IPO wave
Economist Gary Shilling has also warned that a US recession is “almost inevitable” by year-end, with stocks at risk of a 20%–30% decline.
BTC often trades like a high-risk asset during market stress. A deep stock-market sell-off could force investors to cut crypto exposure, turning Olson’s $23,980 level into a key downside level to watch.
Bitcoin institutional demand remains weak
Another bearish signal comes from the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks Bitcoin’s price gap between Coinbase and Binance.
A positive premium usually points to stronger US institutional demand, while a negative reading suggests weaker professional buying or heavier selling on Coinbase.
In Bitcoin’s case, the index has largely remained negative so far in 2026, showing that institutional buyers are still not stepping in with conviction.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index vs. price. Source: CryptoQuant/Darkfost
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are showing a similar trend. Since May, the US-based funds have recorded $4.68 billion in net outflows, according to SoSoValue data, reflecting weaker demand from professional investors and other ETF buyers.
US Bitcoin ETF net flows. Source: SoSoValue
“These investors don’t act like retail,” said Darkfost, a CryptoQuant-associated on-chain analyst, in a Sunday post, adding:
“They operate under permanent risk management logic, they’re not looking to buy a potential bottom, they’re looking for confirmation, for performance. And that’s not the case yet.”
In the past, multiple analysts, including Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn and pseudonymous trader Crypto Kid, have said Bitcoin could decline below $30,000 in the event of a stock market crash.
