Key Takeaways
- Saylor told Bloomberg on Oct. 13 that bitcoin bottomed just under $60,000 and can grow 20% to 30% a year.
- Strategy holds 848,250 BTC and plans to keep adding coins by issuing more digital credit.
- MSCI is due to rule by Oct. 16 on index rules that JPMorgan says could put $2.8B of Strategy flows at risk.
Saylor Calls the Bottom
Saylor made the call during an interview with Bloomberg Television yesterday, adding:
We hit the bottom around slightly below $60,000. [Bitcoin] will march forward from here.
The Strategy executive chairman did not attach a date to the $100,000 call, but was clear about the long run, expecting bitcoin to grow 20% to 30% a year over the next two decades and stressed that he is not a short-term trader.
Saylor said trade, foreign and monetary policy had weighed on the price earlier in the cycle while listing four forces now pushing the other way:
- A favorable regulatory environment.
- Accelerating bank adoption.
- The growth of tokenized securities.
- Strengthening digital credit networks.
He also pointed out that bitcoin briefly slipped below its 200-week moving average before bouncing back to a 25% premium.
Saylor leaned on artificial intelligence (AI) for part of his pitch, stating that investors will increasingly look for assets that robots “can’t make more of,” a group in which he places bitcoin, which he called “the king of commodities.” In a post promoting the interview, he wrote:
Bitcoin is raw financial energy. Strategy transforms it into Digital Credit.
Saylor also brushed off political risk. “It doesn’t matter who gets elected in 2028,” he said, as long as crypto delivers products people love, adding, “you’ll pry those magic products from people’s cold dead fingers.”
Strategy Is Aligning Itself as a Structured Finance Company
The interview also addressed an uncomfortable topic for Strategy loyalists, i.e. the company’s decision to sell bitcoin this year. Saylor said its first sale of 32 BTC drew a strong reaction, while later sales of thousands of coins did not stop the market from rising. He argued that Strategy should be viewed as a structured finance company that moves among equity, cash, credit and bitcoin as conditions change.
The selling is not the plan going forward and Saylor said Strategy likely acquired more bitcoin than any other company this year, and he expects the company to keep increasing its holdings during the bull market by issuing more credit-type securities. The firm now holds 848,250 BTC after a fresh 250 BTC purchase disclosed on Oct. 12.
He also pointed to Strategy’s track record since its first bitcoin buy in August 2020. Over that stretch, bitcoin has climbed about 38% a year, while Strategy’s MSTR stock has returned about 52% to 53% a year, Saylor said.
The Hurdles in Front of the Call
Bitcoin is trading near $83,900 earlier today and prediction markets give a $100K target just 27% odds.
Strategy also faces a test this week unrelated to bitcoin’s price, as MSCI will announce by Oct. 16 whether it will adopt new eligibility rules that could push Strategy out of its global equity indexes. JPMorgan has estimated that roughly $2.8 billion in flows could be at risk if Strategy is excluded. Saylor called MSCI’s stance disappointing and said he hopes the index provider will reconsider.
