Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin stagnated near $80,000 as after recording repeated rejections at $80,500.
- Derivatives liquidations dropped to under $20 million, leaving bitcoin’s market cap flat at $1.61 trillion.
- Analyst Utkarsh Ahuja expects bitcoin volatility ahead of Nov. 3 midterms and upcoming Fed rate decisions.
Pre-Election Caution and Macro Headwinds Weigh on Sentiment
For the second consecutive day, bitcoin traded largely flat, repeatedly failing to break above the $80,500 resistance level as investors appeared to remain on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. The prolonged price stagnation also left bitcoin increasingly likely to close October in negative territory, reversing the gains recorded in August and September while spoiling what some investors expected to be another “Uptober” win.
According to Utkarsh Ahuja, founder and managing partner at Moon Pursuit Capital, bitcoin’s hesitation around $80,000 comes during a crowded week of macroeconomic and sector-wide catalysts, including the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, Big Tech earnings reports, and Anthropic’s initial public offering (IPO) filing putting artificial intelligence (AI) valuations back under scrutiny.
“I remain bullish on crypto, AI, and frontier technologies over the long term, but investors have good reason to be selective right now,” Ahuja said, pointing out that inflation, high technology valuations, and restrictive borrowing costs continue to weigh on investor sentiment. “Until markets get reassurance that corporate earnings can support current valuations and that financial conditions are moving in the right direction, I expect investors to remain fairly cautious.”
Bitstamp 24-hour data shows bitcoin nearly reached $80,700 late Monday morning as buyers briefly seized control. The rally was short-lived, however, as the price dipped back below $80,000 and bottomed out near $79,600. The cryptocurrency then entered a tight seesaw pattern, bounded by resistance under $80,500 and support near $79,500. Yet, shortly after 6 a.m. EST, bitcoin breached the $79,500 floor for the first time in the session before rebounding above $80,300.
Four-Year Cycles and Monetary Uncertainty
At the time of writing (12:25 p.m. ET), bitcoin’s price hovered just below $80,500, showing an 0.4% gain over 24 hours and its market capitalization unchanged near $1.61 trillion. Ahuja noted that while October is shaping up to be a difficult month for crypto despite historical seasonal strength, bitcoin’s four-year cycle and broader market mechanics remain in play.
“Crypto remains sensitive to liquidity, institutional positioning, and broader risk appetite, and investors have little incentive to take on additional exposure while monetary policy remains uncertain,” Ahuja explained. “The institutionalization of crypto has changed how capital moves through the market, but I don’t think it has eliminated bitcoin’s historical cycles. For now, I’d be watching ETF flows, leverage, and broader liquidity conditions.”
Beyond monetary policy, Ahuja emphasized that the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections add another layer of uncertainty, particularly concerning the regulatory landscape for crypto, AI, and energy infrastructure heading into 2027.
In the derivatives market, bitcoin’s flat price action capped its liquidations under $20 million, a significant drop from the $56 million recorded a day earlier. Coinglass data showed long bets liquidated at nearly $12 million, while wiped-out shorts tallied just under $8 million. However, across the broader crypto economy, the situation was slightly different: Of the $133 million liquidated, long positions accounted for $62 million versus nearly $70 million in short positions.
