Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a critical phase in its cycle, prompting analysts to debate whether the long-standing bull run is finally nearing its peak. With volatility tightening and historical cycle data indicating a potentially explosive breakout, market experts are closely watching the next few weeks for signals that reveal the market’s current position and future direction.
Bitcoin Bull Run Cycle Nears Endgame
Market analyst, ‘CRYPTOBIRD’ has warned that the Bitcoin bull run could end within 30 days. In a thread on X social media, he noted that this current cycle has now reached 1,038 days since the November 2022 bottom, which is equivalent to 97.5% of a standard cycle. Historically, the final 2.5% of Bitcoin’s bull runs have delivered the most dramatic price surges, often catching both retail and institutional investors off guard.
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Examining the cycle bottom-to-top chart, BTC’s current market structure aligns closely with that of past cycles, where it experienced its largest accelerations just before cycle completion. The black line representing the current 2022-2025 trajectory shows Bitcoin consolidating after strong gains, much like the 2016 and 2020 cycles before their peaks.
From a technical standpoint, the expert notes that BTC is trading in an unusually tight 5% range between $110,500 and $116,000, signaling heavy compression. However, the cryptocurrency recently broke down again and is now sitting slightly above $109,600.
CRYPTOBIRD highlights key levels: 200-week SMA at $53,111 acting as long-term macro support, the 50-week SMA near $99,000 as the bull market floor and the SPX correlation (-0.19). The analyst explained that short-term structures remain mixed, with High Time Frame (HTF) support at $111,296 still intact. However, compression has created conditions where any breakout could set the tone for the remainder of the year.
Furthermore, the Current Trend Framework (CTF) is at $114,916, signaling bearish periods. Presently, price is gravitating toward the 200-day BPRO at $112,250, and if Bitcoin can hold above it, bulls could remain in control.
Halving Math Signals Final BTC Breakdown
Continuing his analysis, CRYPTOBIRD emphasized that Bitcoin is now 523 days post-halving, placing it firmly within the historical “peak window” of 518-580 days after each halving event. Every previous major cycle top has occurred in this exact range, suggesting Bitcoin is entering the statistical sweet spot for its final move.
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Adding to the setup is the market’s present volatility squeeze. Average True Range (ATR) has dropped to 2,250, its lowest reading of 2025, while 50-day volatility sits at 2,800. The analyst notes that such compressed volatility rarely lasts and typically precedes a violent breakout within two to four weeks.
Institutions also appear to be positioning accordingly, with Bitcoin ETF flows showing distribution. Sentiment indicators add another layer, as the Fear and Greed index stands at 44, indicating rising fear rather than euphoria. Meanwhile, RSI is neutral at 46, suggesting that momentum has cooled but not collapsed.
Despite September’s reputation as Bitcoin’s weakest month, CRYPTOBIRD notes that it gained 4.4% month-to-date, defying its historical 6.2% decline. This anomaly, combined with October, which is typically seen as a green month, could set the stage for a bullish Q4.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
