Gold’s new record and a fresh US government shutdown put crypto on edge, with Bitcoin hovering near $116,000 as traders brace for data blackouts and a foggier Fed path.
The United States entered a federal government shutdown overnight, rattling markets worldwide.
Gold surged to an all-time high, while the dollar weakened, as crypto traders debated whether risk aversion would weigh on or support digital assets.
(Source: Coingecko)
Bitcoin was trading in the mid-$116,000s, fairly steady on the day, by the end of Wednesday.
There were wider crypto shifts that were uneven, and the large caps were experiencing both small gains and losses.
Gold hit a new intraday high of about $3,895 an ounce as investors flocked into havens. An undervalued dollar and more downside cheer in equities contributed to the bid, and the odds of an October rate reduction rose amid a dismal private payrolls print.
“When the government shuts down, the mood turns quite negative on the US,” a metals analyst told Reuters, pointing to the currency drop and the equity dip.
The shutdown also risks delaying key economic reports, including Friday’s non-farm payrolls, leaving markets with fewer signals to guide trading.
Price action in crypto reflected the uncertainty. Bitcoin edged between $116K and $117K, while altcoins lagged. CoinDesk noted in a market update that the shutdown introduces “confidence erosion and data blind spots,” conditions that can fuel volatility across risk assets.
For now, traders are watching whether gold’s surge signals broader caution or if Bitcoin can carve out a safe-haven narrative of its own. The next test comes with the upcoming data releases if they arrive on time.
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How Did Bitcoin and Altcoins React to Past U.S. Government Shutdowns?
Barron also noted early-session gains in Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, and XRP as traders positioned themselves around the fiscal impasse, but said that a lengthy shutdown and sluggish inflation or jobs news could make the next Federal Reserve action more challenging.
In the case of non-yielding assets, such as gold and cryptocurrency, rate transparency is a key driving factor.
There is no regularity in past episodes. The 16-day shutdown in 2013 saw Bitcoin increase by approximately 1,014 percent as risk appetite returned later that month.
A more recent case, a 35-day stalemate in 2018-2019, saw Bitcoin fall approximately 610%, between $4,014 on December 22, 2018, and approximately $3,607 on January 25, 2019, as part of a larger crypto bear market.
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For now, crypto’s initial reaction appears to be cautiously risk-on, with Bitcoin rising slightly and altcoins sending mixed signals. A lot will depend on how long Washington stays closed and which economic reports are pushed back.
Traders are especially interested in whether the non-farm payrolls report on Friday and the consumer price index report next week are delayed. Suppose there are any gaps in the data. In that case, the Fed might not have as many signals to guide its policy decisions going into its October meeting, which would make it harder to determine the appropriate course of action.
Bitcoin support is currently around $115,000 in the short term, and the market will likely react to next week’s macroeconomic calendar if reports are released on time.
Until then, markets are preparing for a range of ups and downs, and gold’s record-breaking run highlights the cautious approach people are taking toward various assets worldwide.
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