Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded 32% to a 10-week high of $79,500 on April 22 from its sub-60,000 multi-year low. But recent buyers took advantage of the rally to exit as the price has since corrected to $76,000 on Thursday, with $80,000 proving a tough barrier to break.
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin sell pressure risk exists around $80,000, a resistance level that may delay the bulls.
- Short-term holders and Bitcoin ETF investors keep selling, frustrating recovery attempts.
Bitcoin price can’t crack $80,000
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin failed to break above $80,000 as its rebound fell short of a bull market comeback.
This is due to the resistance zone between the True Market Mean at $78,000 and the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis at $79,000, which continues to cap upward momentum, as recent buyers used this range to exit near breakeven.
“This behavior is a textbook pattern in bear markets, where price approaches the breakeven level of the most price-sensitive cohort, the incentive to exit positions overwhelms incoming demand, exhausting upside momentum,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain newsletter, adding:
“With this rejection confirming overhead resistance, the mid-term bias tilts toward further downward pressure.”
Bitcoin STH cost basis model. Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution data shows that investors hold about 475,301 BTC at an average cost of $77,800-$80,880, reinforcing the significance of this resistance zone.
Traders say the BTC/USD pair must flip the resistance at $80,000 into support to target higher highs toward $84,000.
After reclaiming the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages, BTC/USD has sent “one bottoming signal after another firing on higher timeframes,” technical analyst SuperBitcoinBro said in a Wednesday post on X, adding:
“But I agree it needs to get past 80K.”
Daan Crypto Trades said the $80,000 level remains the “main level for the bulls in the short/mid term.”
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: X/Daan Crypto Trades
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin breaking $80,000 would signal that the bulls are still in control, paving the way for the next big resistance at $84,000.
BTC selling by short-term holders halts rally
Additional onchain data shows “heavy distribution” by short-term holders, as these investors booked profits on Bitcoin’s recent rally to $80,000.
The 24-hour SMA of STH Realized Profit shows that as the price approached the $80,000 level, recent buyers realized profits at a rate of $4 million per hour.
The 24-hour SMA of STH Realized Profit is a real-time measure of how aggressively recent buyers are realizing gains.
The metric spiked as high as $7.2 million per hour on April 15, about roughly “four times the base level that had established itself since mid-April, confirming that short-term holders seized the rally as a distribution opportunity,” Glassnode said, adding:
“The buy side simply lacked sufficient liquidity to absorb this wave of profit realization, capping momentum and triggering the subsequent rejection.”
Bitcoin Entity-Adjusted STH realized profit. Source: Glassnode
More selling pressure came from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which have recorded outflows for three consecutive days, totaling $390 million.
This marked the longest outflow streak since March 20, when a three-day outflow streak accompanied an 11.5% BTC price drop after rejection at $76,000.
Spot BTC ETF flows chart. Source: SoSoValue
Analysts at Wise Advise said that the return to spot BTC ETF outflows after a nine-day inflow streak is the first sign that “the local top may be in.”
