Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded above $76,000 at Thursday’s Wall Street open while traders stayed bearish on the short-term BTC price outlook.
Key points:
- Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index flips negative as analysis warned the January breakdown could repeat.
- BTC price action is already at risk of repeating a bear flag breakdown to new macro lows.
- The April monthly close should still offer Bitcoin’s best gains in a year.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium risks repeating bearish history
Data from TradingView showed 1% daily gains after initial pressure over high oil prices and a hawkish US Federal Reserve meeting the day prior.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
With US stocks treading water, Bitcoin market participants saw little reason to flip bullish on shorter time frames.
Among the concerns was the Coinbase Premium — the difference in price between Coinbase’s BTC/USD and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs.
“Bitcoin’s ripping higher… but the selling on Coinbase is getting DEEPER by the minute,” X user Against Wall Street wrote.
A negative Coinbase Premium implies insufficient demand for Bitcoin during US trading hours, with price action normally suffering as a result.
In January, a relief bounce on BTC/USD combined with a steepening negative Premium, and the pair ultimately broke to new macro lows.
.png?prefix=media%2Fcontent)
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant
“We’ve seen this exact movie before, and spoiler alert: everybody already knows how it ends,” Against Wall Street continued, referring to January’s events.
As Cointelegraph reported, then, as now, price formed a so-called “bear flag” construction on the daily chart — a warning to buyers that a breakdown could occur.
BTC teases best monthly price gains since April 2025
Other traders also felt the need for caution, with trader CJ seeing little sign of a long-term floor already being in place.
Related: Bitcoin, stocks risk ‘months’ of losses as Kevin Warsh Becomes Fed chair
A chart uploaded to X on the day included a potential target of $65,000.
“I think even if we are putting in a bottom here, we *at least* see something like this,” they commented.
“This would be my bullish outlook. I’m ultimately waiting on April close to refine.”
BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: CJ/X
The monthly close was set to offer 11.6% gains for April at the time of writing — still Bitcoin’s best performance in a year, per data from CoinGlass.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
