Bitcoin (BTC) has fulfilled two of three key conditions to spark the next BTC price “rally,” new analysis says.
Key points:
- Bitcoin whales on Hyperliquid and Bitfinex are already pointing to the beginning of a BTC price uptrend, according to the latest findings.
- Bitcoin markets now need demand to return in the form of the Coinbase and Kimchi Premium.
- Other preconditions for a bear market bottom are also in the process of forming.
Bitcoin price comeback hinges on US, Korea demand
Bitcoin whale traders are laying the foundations for BTC price relief, even as BTC/USD plumbs four-month lows.
In an X post on Friday, trader CW confirmed that Bitcoin whales on both Hyperliquid and Bitfinex are signaling a market rebound.
BTC/USD long positions on Bitfinex. Source: CW/X
CW notes that Hyperliquid whales have adopted a “bullish stance” on the market, while on Bitfinex, long positions have tailed off. The latter is a classic sign that an uptrend is due next.
“What remains is for the Kimchi Premium and Coinbase Premium to turn positive,” he commented.
The Coinbase Premium is the difference in price between Coinbase’s and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs and has been mostly negative in 2026.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant
A negative premium reflects weak US demand, while the Kimchi Premium monitors the South Korean exchange sector.
Once demand returns across the board, Bitcoin has a better chance of reentering a sustainable uptrend.
CW acknowledged that the Kimchi Premium has already “decreased significantly” versus earlier in the week.
Bitcoin starts its latest “bottoming out” phase
As Cointelegraph reported, consensus overall favors a macro bottoming phase playing out for BTC/USD next.
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The week has seen the pair touch a key bear-market trend line in the form of its 200-week simple moving average (SMA) — another essential ingredient in a bottom formation.
“Bitcoin has only just started deviating below the 200-week SMA,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital emphasized to X followers on Friday.
“The significance of this is that historical Bear Market Bottoming out formations have started to develop via such deviations.”
BTC/USD one-week chart with 200SMA. Source: Rekt Capital/X
Earlier, trader Leviathan described BTC price action as copying the 2022 bear market “almost perfectly.”
