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Key Takeaways

Standard Chartered Sees Strategy Rebound as BTC Tests a Fragile Floor

Bitcoin sell-offs separate conviction from forced selling before testing potential price floors. According to Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, this week’s crypto weakness intensified after Strategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) sold 32 BTC, a transaction that fit criticism of corporate bitcoin treasury models while BTC was already under pressure.

Standard Chartered’s focus is not on the sale but on the likely response. Strategy sold 704 BTC on Dec. 22, 2022, for tax optimization, then bought 810 BTC two days later, giving the bank a clear precedent for expecting renewed accumulation after the latest disposal.

Kendrick wrote:

“I suspect the buying following the selling will be more aggressive – I think either 10x (+ 320 BTC) or 100x (+3200 BTC).”

That expectation makes Strategy’s next disclosure central to the market’s near-term direction. A 320 BTC purchase would exceed the recent sale by 10 times, while a 3,200 BTC acquisition would exceed it by 100 times and strongly challenge the idea that Strategy has shifted from buyer to seller.

Speculation increased after Executive Chairman Michael Saylor posted “A Good Time to Add More Dots” alongside Strategy’s bitcoin tracker, a phrase that traders often read as a signal of potential accumulation. The company still held 843,706 BTC, keeping MSTR closely tied to BTC price swings, future purchase expectations, and the possibility that any follow-up buying could outweigh the recent sale.

ETF Holdings Show Why Standard Chartered Questions the Next Seller

The price backdrop gives the thesis sharper stakes. BTC held above a $59,100 low while short-term charts showed oversold conditions and resistance near $63,000 to $64,000, making Strategy’s next move potentially decisive for traders watching whether the rebound is relief or reversal.

Standard Chartered’s broader forecasts frame the selloff as painful but not thesis-breaking. The bank forecasts BTC at $100,000 by the end of 2026, rising to $200,000 in 2027, $300,000 in 2028, $400,000 in 2029, and $500,000 by 2030. It also projects ETH at $4,000 by the end of 2026, followed by $10,000 in 2027, $18,000 in 2028, $28,000 in 2029, and $40,000 by 2030, reflecting continued confidence in blockchain-based financial infrastructure.

Kendrick wrote:

“I think when we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100K and ETH at $4K we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted.”

Bitcoin ETF holdings now look stronger than Standard Chartered feared in February. The bank noted that spot bitcoin ETF holdings increased from about 682,000 BTC before falling back to roughly 674,000 BTC, leaving exposure broadly unchanged despite the recent market weakness.

Derivatives markets also suggest a significant amount of leverage has already been cleared. Standard Chartered explained that roughly $1.5 billion in BTC futures positions were liquidated this week, a scale similar to the separate liquidation waves from Jan. 29-31 and Feb. 3-6.

Together, those trends support the bank’s view that additional selling pressure may be harder to find. With ETF holdings broadly unchanged at about 674,000 BTC, leverage reduced through liquidations, and Strategy potentially emerging as a net buyer, the sources of further downside pressure appear less obvious than earlier this year.