Crypto firm Galaxy Digital has lowered the odds of the Senate passing its crypto market structure bill before the end of the year, noting that the window for lawmakers to act on the bill is closing.
“On May 22, we raised our estimate of the probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 75%, up from the 55% we published the morning of May 14’s Senate Banking markup, Galaxy’s head of research Alex Thorn said in a note on Friday. “We are now lowering that estimate to 60%.”
Thorn said the bill must pass the Senate before a month-long August recess starting in late July, as “after that, the window effectively closes.” He added that major legislation has historically not moved in the lead-up to the midterm elections due to lawmakers campaigning.
Many Senate lawmakers have been pushing for the chamber to pass the bill after the House passed its version, called the CLARITY Act, last year.
The Senate Agriculture and Banking Committees have passed versions of the bill, and it now needs at least 60 votes on the Senate floor to pass without prolonged debate.
“For a 60-vote bill that still needs floor debate, an amendment process, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture text, and then House action on the changes, Majority Leader [John] Thune realistically needs to schedule floor time at some point in July,” Thorn said.
“Anything later and the procedural steps do not fit before the recess,” he added.
Source: Alex Thorn
Thorn said another reason Galaxy lowered its odds is that no information shows that the bill, or negotiations around it, have advanced, and provisions around ethics and illicit finance are a sticking point that have not yet been resolved.
He added that Galaxy would revise its odds if Senate leaders committed to passing the bill next month and that provisions to get lawmakers on side are finalized.
Galaxy’s latest odds came after analysts at JPMorgan on Wednesday said they see less than a 50% chance that the CLARITY Act passes this year, similarly citing a tightening congressional calendar ahead of the elections.
Meanwhile, Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan said on Tuesday that his view of the bill passing this year is “less optimistic,” and that “D.C. insiders” he spoke with put the odds of its passage between 5% and 30%.
Senator Cynthia Lummis, the chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, has escalated her calls for the Senate to pass the bill, having made at least 15 posts on X about the legislation so far in June.
“The Clarity Act passed committee. The floor is next. We did not come this far to quit at the 5 yard line,” she posted on Sunday.
Lummis told CNBC on Wednesday that lawmakers working on the bill are addressing issues, including around ethics and illicit finance, that could see it lose support on a floor vote.
