Bitcoin (BTC) showed signs of bottoming inside the $60,000–$70,000 range on Wednesday, according to onchain data shared by a quant analyst.
Key takeaways:
- Nearly 20% of BTC supply now sits between $60,000 and $70,000, strengthening the case for a Bitcoin price floor.
- Bitcoin’s bear flag still risks a breakdown toward $53,500 unless BTC reclaims a critical technical resistance level.
Nearly 20% of BTC supply moved in the $60,000–$70,000 range
The bottom signal comes from Bitcoin’s unrealized price distribution, or URPD, which shows where BTC last moved on-chain and helps identify major investor cost-basis zones.
As of Tuesday, Bitcoin’s URPD reading showed a heavy concentration of supply between $60,000 and $70,000. About 20% of Bitcoin’s supply now sits in that range, “Frank Fetter” said, citing Checkonchain data.
“This is how meaningful floors are put in,” the analyst added.
Bitcoin supply in profit/loss. Source: Checkonchain
Dense cost-basis zones can become important support areas because many investors share similar entry levels. In Bitcoin’s case, the $60,000–$70,000 band now marks a major ownership cluster near current prices.
That suggests a large amount of BTC changed hands during the correction, with higher-cost holders likely selling into weakness, while new buyers absorbed the BTC supply near the lower range.
In market terms, this points to a redistribution phase, in which panic sellers exit and more conviction-driven buyers build positions.
Darkfost, a CryptoQuant-associated on-chain analyst, echoed that view, saying the setup reflects “one of the biggest BTC transfers from weak hands to strong ones.”
Bitcoin “supply in profit” echoes past market bottoms
Bitcoin’s supply in profit percentage has dropped into what analyst DurdenBTC called a “capitulation zone.”
The metric shows how much of the BTC supply is still held at a profit. A sharp drop means more holders are underwater or near breakeven, a condition often seen during late-stage bear markets.
BTC has reached this zone only four times in recent cycles: around $3,200 in 2019, $5,000 in 2020, $16,000 in 2023 and now near $59,000. Each prior instance appeared near a major Bitcoin price bottom.
That strengthens the case for the $60,000–$70,000 range becoming a floor, though BTC still needs to hold above $60,000 to confirm this.
Bitcoin sell-off risks toward $50,000 persist
Bitcoin’s technical chart, nevertheless, warns of deeper losses despite the on-chain floor signals.
On the daily chart, BTC is attempting to rebound inside a small bear flag after its sharp drop below $60,000. A bear flag forms when price consolidates upward after a strong sell-off, often before the next leg lower.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
A rejection from the flag’s upper trend line could trigger another breakdown below $60,000. Based on the pattern’s height, Bitcoin’s next downside target sits near $53,500, close to the broader $50,000 support area.
Related: Bitcoin sell-off toward $60K may resume as Japan hikes interest rates
A daily close above the 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA, green) at $66,420 may weaken the bearish setup. The level also aligns with the flag’s upper trend line.
A decisive close above this resistance confluence may push the BTC price toward the 50-day EMA at around $70,250. However, several Bitcoin metrics suggest that BTC could reach as high as $100,000 in the coming months.
