Bitcoin (BTC) demand shifts are “behind” the price rebound to $64,000, new analysis claims.
Key points:
- New Bitcoin price analysis says that US whales are behind the latest spate of BTC price relief.
- The Coinbase Premium is above its 14-day moving average, a key sign of strength.
- Research from Bitcoin Suisse suggests that “something changed” on the market this week.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium still negative despite trend line reclaim
In a blog post on Friday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant attributed Bitcoin’s July upside to US-based whales.
Specifically, the Coinbase Premium — the difference in price between Coinbase’s and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs — is showing early signs of buy-side momentum “regaining strength.”
“The Coinbase Premium Index for both BTC and ETH remains in negative territory, but both have bounced off their local lows,” contributor Burak Kesmeci wrote.
“On top of that, both metrics managed to reclaim their SMA14. This is what’s behind Bitcoin’s move from 58K to 64K, and Ethereum’s rally from $1,500 to $1,750.”
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index with 14-day SMA. Source: CryptoQuant
Kesmeci referred to the Coinbase Premium Index’s 14-day simple moving average. As Cointelegraph reported, the Index has spent much of 2026 in negative territory, implying weak demand from both large and small investors on the largest US crypto exchange.
“Once again, U.S. whale activity is proving to be the leading data point for trend direction. Short-, medium-, and long-term regime shifts can all be read through this metric,” Kesmeci continued.
The Index currently sits at -0.08, per CryptoQuant data, having last flipped positive on daily time frames more than two months ago.
“The current picture is a catalyst for a short-term bounce — but for a real long-term regime change, this metric needs to break above zero,” Kesmeci concluded.
Bitcoin Suisse: “Bottom signal framework flashing”
As Cointelegraph reported, institutional demand is also on the radar for market participants.
Related: BTC speculators in focus as analysis says ‘textbook Bitcoin bottom’ is underway
The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw their first net inflows after a record-breaking $2.7 billion losing streak.
Data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors nonetheless shows investor sentiment remains sensitive to even small BTC price moves.
On Thursday, a third straight day of net outflows totaled $95.3 million.
US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors
Analyzing a basket of metrics, crypto finance provider Bitcoin Suisse included ETF flow data as one signal that the status quo on the market has changed.
“Eight weeks of ETF outflows. Bitcoin at a 21-month low. This week, something shifted,” it told X followers in a thread on Friday.
Bitcoin Suisse described a “bottom signal framework flashing” while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in its lowest “extreme greed” zone.
