Key Takeaways
- McGregor risked $100,000 on Argentina winning 3-2 for a potential $3.6 million return.
- Kalshi gave Spain 58.2% odds as its World Cup market topped $1.4 billion in volume.
- Drake added $1.5 million on Argentina before the July 19 final against Spain.
The former UFC champion shared the exact-score wager through 1xBet ahead of the 3 p.m. EDT kickoff on Sunday, July 19. The bet must hit within regulation time, meaning Argentina must lead 3-2 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, regardless of what happens in extra time or a penalty shootout.
McGregor explained that the wager was inspired by “some guy on the internet,” referring to a July 11, 2021, post that declared: “Argentina just beat Spain at the 2026 World Cup final, 3-2.” The dormant prediction resurfaced after both countries reached the final, turning an old social media post into one of the match’s most prominent betting narratives.
A $3.6 Million Payday Hangs on One Exact Score
At odds near 36.00, McGregor’s $100,000 stake could return approximately $3.6 million if the precise result materializes. Any other score, including an Argentina victory by a different margin, would result in a loss.
The narrow conditions separate McGregor’s wager from a conventional bet on Argentina to lift the trophy. Spain and Argentina could finish regulation tied, with Argentina winning in extra time or on penalties, and McGregor’s ticket would still fail.
McGregor called Argentina “the most mispriced line” on the board, but the wager appears to lean as heavily on the viral prediction as on traditional match analysis. Exact-score contracts carry long odds because bettors must correctly identify the winner and the final regulation score.
Prediction Markets Give Spain the Edge
The broader market entered Sunday favoring Spain. Kalshi traders assigned Spain a 58.2% probability of winning the World Cup, compared with 42% for Argentina, across a market reporting more than $1.4 billion in trading volume.
Kalshi’s regulation-time contracts placed Spain’s chance of winning within 90 minutes at 43%, a draw at 32% and Argentina’s chance at 27%. The platform also priced the likelihood of more than 2.5 match goals at 42%, indicating traders generally expected a tighter or lower-scoring contest than McGregor’s five-goal prediction.
Polymarket reflected similar expectations shortly before kickoff. Spain traded near a 59% chance of advancing as champion, while Argentina stood near 41%. Its regulation-time moneyline priced Spain at roughly 42.75%, a draw at 31.75% and Argentina at 26.75%.
Those figures make McGregor’s prediction a two-part challenge. Argentina must overcome the market favorite, and the match must produce exactly five goals in the required 3-2 sequence.
Drake Piles $1.5 Million Onto Argentina
McGregor is not the only celebrity placing a major wager on Lionel Messi and Argentina. Canadian rapper Drake staked $1.5 million through Stake on Argentina winning the final in regulation or extra time, with a potential payout exceeding $5 million.
Drake’s bet carries broader winning conditions because it does not require a particular score. Still, his public wagering history has generated the recurring “Drake curse” meme, which links his selections to subsequent defeats.
Together, the two wagers place $1.6 million of publicly disclosed celebrity money behind Argentina. Their social media posts have also expanded attention beyond traditional sports betting audiences, drawing casual observers into prediction markets, exact-score props, and match-outcome contracts.
McGregor Has Cashed Major Soccer Bets Before
McGregor’s willingness to back Argentina is consistent with his recent tournament betting record. He wagered €83,500 on Spain to win Euro 2024 at roughly 11-to-1 odds, collecting a return exceeding €1 million after Spain captured the title.
He also placed a substantial wager on Argentina to win the 2024 Copa América. Argentina defeated Colombia 1-0 in the final, giving McGregor another widely publicized soccer betting victory.
Not every high-profile selection has landed. McGregor also backed Cristiano Ronaldo to win the Euro 2024 Golden Boot, a wager that failed when Ronaldo did not finish as the tournament’s leading scorer. Reports differed significantly on the size of that stake, illustrating the difficulty of verifying every celebrity betting claim.
McGregor’s $100,000 ticket will be settled within hours. A 3-2 Argentina victory would turn a forgotten 2021 post into a multimillion-dollar prophecy. Every other regulation-time score would leave it as another viral prediction that came close, or never came close at all.
Meanwhile, dilemma, the X account that made the World Cup prediction in 2021, posted today and said:
“…today is the day.”
While his original prediction has garnered 300,000 likes, his latest “today is the day” post has gathered around 75,000 likes at the time of writing.
