Key Takeaways
- Drake’s $1.5M USDT bet on Argentina at +245 odds died when Ferran Torres scored Spain’s extra-time winner.
- Another Polymarket whale turned a $1.95M bet on Spain into a $1.35M profit while a rival lost $1.23M backing Argentina.
- Drake has now dropped $5.7 million on public bets since April 2024, with a 36.8% win rate across 87 tracked wagers.
How the Bet Died
The rapper had placed the wager through crypto casino Stake at +245 odds, sharing the slip with his 140 million-plus Instagram followers ahead of the July 19 final. A win inside regulation or extra time would have returned roughly $5.175 million, a profit of about $3.67 million. Bitcoin.com News covered the wager before kickoff, noting Spain entered as the clear favorite on prediction markets.
The match delivered the same scenario, with the European giant dominating much of the duel despite not being able to break through Argentina goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez until the game turned in second-half stoppage time, when Argentina was reduced to ten men by a red card. Ferran Torres then scored the winner just 39 seconds into the second half of extra time, handing Spain a 1-0 victory and its second World Cup title.
Onchain Winners and Losers
The final settled enormous positions across crypto prediction markets and Polymarket’s World Cup winner contract alone drew $4.28 billion in volume (with Spain priced at 59 cents per share before the match, meaning traders collectively saw the outcome coming).
Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain flagged the night’s sharpest contrast. A mysterious whale created a fresh wallet ten hours before the final and bet $1.95 million on Spain at 59.1% odds, walking away with a $1.35 million profit in just a few hours.
On the other side, a gambler known as gud.hl staked $1.23 million on Argentina when the odds were just 10%, chasing a potential $12.35 million payout.
The final capped off a tournament that completely transformed crypto betting venues, registering a $5.5 billion wagering frenzy heading into the final (with celebrities from Drake to Conor McGregor turning their predictions into public theater).
The Drake Curse Rolls on
For Drake, the loss extends one of the most documented losing streaks in celebrity gambling. The rapper has placed 87 tracked public bets since February 2022, wagering $38.72 million and collecting $37.17 million in returns, a net loss of $1.56 million at a 36.8% win rate, with an average stake of $445,080. Since April 30, 2024, his public bets have bled $5.7 million, including $1.67 million on soccer alone.
The pattern has spawned its own folklore, being referred to as the “Drake curse,” in which the teams he backs seem destined to lose. Argentina and Lionel Messi, who rated among the final’s poorest performers, became its latest victims.
