Cryptoquant Founder Warns Bitcoin Spot Demand Fades While Futures Traders Hold Steady

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Key Takeaways

The leading cryptocurrency traded between roughly $65,300 and $66,360 during the 24 hours, according to Bitcoin.com’s BTC market statistics. Figures showed Bitcoin closing near $66,101 on July 22 before slipping to around $65,568 in partial trading on July 23, a decline of about 0.61% on the day. The pullback followed a recovery of more than 13% earlier in July from a low near $57,750.

Spot Demand Losing Steam

Cryptoquant’s executive, Ki Young Ju, posted on Thursday that “bitcoin spot demand is weakening” and that “futures demand remains net positive, but is significantly lower than during the rebound three months ago.” He shared a Cryptoquant chart tracking 30-day cumulative demand growth in bitcoin terms, showing futures positioning far below the levels seen during the March through May rebound, when futures demand peaked near 250,000 BTC on a 30-day basis.

The Cryptoquant chart shared by the firm’s founder Ki Young Ju.

Spot demand, the gray bars on the chart, has stayed mostly negative or flat since June, even as bitcoin bounced off its early July lows. Ki Young Ju’s comment points to a market where leveraged futures buying is providing some lift, while the coin buying that typically anchors a durable rally has not shown up.

Trading Volume Cools

24-hour trading volume across major platforms ran between roughly $21 billion and $24 billion for spot markets, down from about $28.1 billion on July 22, market data showed. Derivatives activity totaled around $147 billion, with open interest holding near $111 billion, according to spot volume statistics. Bitcoin’s market capitalization sat near $1.31 trillion to $1.32 trillion on a circulating supply of about 20.06 million coins.

Middle East Conflict and Oil Spikes Add Pressure

Reports of attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea tied to Iran-backed groups pushed West Texas Intermediate crude up nearly 5% toward $91 a barrel, its highest level in weeks. Higher energy costs tend to weigh on risk assets, and bitcoin’s dip tracked the broader caution that followed.

Nasdaq 100 futures fell around 0.75% in one snapshot, pressured further after Alphabet raised its artificial intelligence (AI) spending outlook despite beating revenue expectations, a move that sent the stock lower after hours. The 10 year Treasury yield rose to around 4.70%, with traders pricing in the odds of a Federal Reserve move at the July 28 to 29 meeting.

ETF Buyers Keep Showing Up

Spot bitcoin ETFs continued pulling in money even as the price softened. Data showed net inflows of about $203 million on July 21, led by Blackrock’s IBIT fund at roughly $164 million, followed by another $69 million on July 22. Long-term holder supply, coins that have sat unmoved for extended stretches, reached a fresh all-time high in recent onchain data, a sign that longtime owners kept holding through the dip. Tesla also retained its Bitcoin position, according to market commentary.

Key Levels Ahead

Resistance has held firm in the $66,500 to $66,800 zone across recent sessions, while the $65,300 to $65,400 area has acted as a floor. A close above $66,800 to $67,000 would open the door to further gains, traders say, while a drop below $65,000 and then $64,000 could trigger deeper profit taking. Bitcoin remains about 48% below its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000.

The Fed’s late July decision stands as the next major catalyst. Continued ETF inflows and the record long-term holder supply offer some cushion, but Ki Young Ju’s data suggests the recovery still depends more on leveraged futures positioning than on the kind of spot buying that tends to mark the start of a sustained move higher.

What Comes Next

Derivatives positioning looked slightly bullish heading into the weekend, with open interest holding steady and long short ratios close to even. That reduces the odds of a forced liquidation cascade in either direction over the short term. Community sentiment on major platforms still leaned bullish, with roughly 77% to 80% of respondents in recent polls calling for higher prices, though that reading is a soft signal compared with hard flow data. For now, traders are watching whether spot buyers step back in or whether the market keeps leaning on futures to hold its ground.