Key Takeaways
- Glassnode flagged bitcoin seller exhaustion but stopped short of confirming a bottom.
- Spot bitcoin ETFs have continued to attract inflows as BTC held near the $64,000 level.
- Traders now watch whether BTC clears $65,000 resistance to confirm Wintermute’s recovery thesis.
Selling Pressure Fades, But Confirmation Is Missing
Onchain analytics firm Glassnode said this week that bitcoin sellers appear to be running out of steam, a signal often associated with the later stages of a market downturn. That said, the firm stopped short of declaring the cycle’s bottom is confirmed even as bitcoin has spent the first half of August 2026 stuck in a narrow band (trading between $63,500 and $65,000).
Bitfinex’s research desk offered one explanation for why sellers might be tiring, stating that more than half of the circulating bitcoin supply (i.e. 54.6%) currently sits in profit. Analysts described that level as putting the average holder effectively at breakeven, a condition that has historically coincided with the tail end of corrections rather than their beginning.
Glassnode’s own commentary postured the current market as compressed rather than capitulating, adding that the pervading trading conditions were “priced for nothing and reacting to everything.”
ETF Demand Holds Even as Price Stalls
One reason analysts aren’t writing off a recovery is that institutional demand has not dried up alongside retail conviction. Even though spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) bled $144.67M yesterday, the outflow came after a 5-day streak of continued inflows. Moreover, despite high-profile sales from many whales and Saylor-led Strategy, BTC has been able to maintain its price.
Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere tied the recovery narrative directly to price action, saying the case only holds if bitcoin convincingly clears $65,000 in the near term. Until that happens, the seller-exhaustion signal remains a data point rather than a turning point.
Bitcoin.com News previously reported on a similar Glassnode signal from last year, when loss-taking events across bitcoin and ethereum were reducing in scale with each price leg lower following a tariff-driven selloff that dragged bitcoin down to $74,500. That episode preceded a recovery, but it took months, not days, for price to confirm what the onchain data had already suggested.
That parallel, however, is imperfect, especially since bitcoin’s current price is roughly $10,000 lower than of that time, but it did mark a turning point in BTC’s trajectory.
A Decisive Break Could Change the Status Quo
The market’s next move likely hinges less on onchain exhaustion metrics and more on whether buyers can push bitcoin decisively through $65,000 resistance. A clean break would validate the recovery thesis that Wintermute and other desks are floating; another rejection would support the view that seller exhaustion is a pause, not a pivot.
In any case, Glassnode analysts seem to be convinced that sellers who drove bitcoin lower through late July and early August are largely spent. Whether that’s enough to build a durable bottom, or just a breather before the next test lower, is the question the firm itself hasn’t yet answered.
