Bitcoin (BTC) is breaking with typical bear-market behavior as a classic onchain metric puts in its longest bullish streak of 2026.
Key points:
- Bitcoin’s SOPR metric has stayed above its breakeven point of 1 for three full weeks, its longest stint in 2026.
- Analysis suggests that UTXO profitability is reflecting a return to bull-market conditions.
- David Puell says SOPR must stay bullish for longer, seeing more BTC price downside to come.
SOPR data repeats early bull-market activity
Data from crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has now been above its breakeven level of 1 since Aug. 19. SOPR measures the extent to which coins moving onchain do so at a higher or lower price compared to the previous transaction.
The metric, which generally moves in a tight range around 1, currently measures 1.002. Values above 1 indicate that coins are mostly being moved in profit — a sign of overall bullish market momentum. This signal has now endured for three weeks, marking the longest stretch of bullish SOPR of 2026 so far.
Bitcoin SOPR chart. Source: CryptoQuant
SOPR can be broken down by wallet cohort to differentiate profitability between newer and older investors. Commenting on SOPR readings for short-term holders (STHs), wallets holding a UTXO without selling for up to six months, onchain analytics suite Checkonchain added to hopes that Bitcoin is staging a long-term bullish recovery.
“In bear markets, rallies back into profit tend to get sold. In bull markets, short sharp moves below break-even tend to become buy-the-dip setups. The current structure is starting to look more like those early bull-market recoveries,” it told X followers at the weekend.
Bitcoin STH-SOPR data. Source: Checkonchain on X.com
Puell retains Bitcoin price “downside risk” despite SOPR recovery
Despite BTC/USD holding a local range around $80,000 while the SOPR profitability streak continues, the pair could still hit new macro lows this cycle, one of the industry’s best-known analysts warns.
Related: New Bitcoin whales spark sell-side risk as unrealized gains hit $9B
In an interview with CryptoQuant on Sept. 4, ARK Invest portfolio manager David Puell, creator of the Puell multiple BTC price indicator, said that more evidence was needed to assume that the next bear-market floor is already in.
Asked about how Bitcoin’s 25% August upside could play out going into Q4, Puell suggested that further upside was the less likely outcome.
“In our view, as of now, we leave it as a downside risk,” he said.
Puell singled out SOPR signals as a key prerequisite for changing his long-term bias, stating that the metric needs to remain above 1 for an extended period, with investors “realizing profits consistently without price going back to a new low.”
Bitcoin must also start putting in series of higher highs and higher lows — a pattern that Cointelegraph reported is still absent on weekly time frames.
In late August, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju described the bear market as already “over” on the back of the latest readings from its proprietary Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator.
