Bitcoin Options Traders Turn Bullish for the First Time in 12 Months

Bitcoin derivatives traders have apparently decided that after spending months worrying about the floor, it is finally acceptable to look at the ceiling. Bitcoin traded around $78,278 at 10 a.m. EDT on Sept. 14, while derivatives data showed 676,820 BTC worth of futures open interest, valued at $52.64 billion.

Meanwhile, options traders have flipped bullish for the first time in 12 months, according to Derive data cited by Reuters on Monday. The 25-delta skew turned positive Aug. 20, meaning traders started paying more for bullish calls than protective puts. That sounds pretty cheerful. Bitcoin itself, however, has yet to get the memo.

$52.64 Billion Is Riding on Bitcoin Futures

Across the futures market, Coinglass bitcoin futures metrics show open interest (OI) increased 2.33% over 24 hours even as it slipped 0.30% over the latest hour and 0.15% over four hours. In plain English, traders added a great deal of leverage over the past day, but some of that enthusiasm has been running out of steam in the shorter windows.

Binance held the largest slice with 142,870 BTC, worth $11.11 billion at press time, or 21.1% of the total. CME followed with 108,630 BTC worth $8.45 billion and a 16.04% share. Gate carried $4.94 billion, Bybit $4.83 billion, and MEXC $4.39 billion. OKX held another $2.78 billion in OI.

The exchange-level moves are basically all over the place. CME open interest gained 1.41% over the last 24 hours, and Binance added 1.66%, while Gate dropped 3.03%. BingX was the wild one, jumping 80.18% in a single day.

Options Traders Finally Put the Umbrella Away

The bigger plot twist is happening in BTC’s options venues. Calls represented 305,530.06 BTC, or 61.39% of total options open interest, compared with 192,126.29 BTC in puts, or 38.61%. Trading activity told almost the same story: 24-hour call volume stood at 18,892.23 BTC against 12,497.93 BTC in puts.

Calls are essentially contracts that benefit from upside, while puts are commonly used to protect against falling prices. The positive 25-delta skew, therefore, matters because traders are no longer paying the premium they once did for crash insurance. Reuters reporters Hannah Lang, Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss, and Medha Singh reported that this shift is the first bullish reading in 12 months.

Still, nobody is throwing a six-figure bitcoin party just yet. Derive’s December positioning puts about $710 million at the $80,000 strike and $530 million at $100,000. Reuters noted on Monday that bitcoin derivatives traders assign almost no chance to bitcoin reclaiming its October 2025 peak above $126,000.

Deribit Traders Crowd Around $70,000 to $100,000

Deribit’s largest displayed position is the Sept. 25 $70,000 call with 10,956.7 BTC in open interest. The $85,000 call follows with 9,492.8 BTC, while a $70,000 put carries 9,426.8 BTC. Calls at $90,000, $80,000, $100,000 and $82,000 are also among the largest positions.

That is hardly a timid book. Recent September positioning was already running about 1.8 calls for every put, with upside concentrated between $78,000 and $100,000 and heavier downside insurance sitting near $60,000 and below. Historically, September has been a bearish month for BTC over the last decade or more.

CME tells a more cautious story. Its options open interest has recovered from summer lows, but Cryptoquant’s stacked charts show current positioning remains far below the towering levels seen in late 2025. Near-term expirations make up a sizable portion of the present stack, while the CME position chart still shows puts outweighing calls.

Max Pain Is Sitting Below Bitcoin on Deribit

Then there is max pain, the price at which the greatest value of outstanding options would expire worthless. Coinglass’s Deribit statistics place the large Sept. 25 expiry around $72,000, with roughly $15 billion in notional value attached to that date. The Dec. 25 expiry also carries a large notional block, with max pain near $71,000.

Binance paints a slightly less bearish picture. Its Sept. 25 max-pain level sits around $75,000, while later expirations bounce between roughly $70,000 and $80,000.

The supplied material includes OKX futures open interest, but it does not provide an OKX max-pain chart or OKX options max-pain figures, so an OKX level cannot be stated reliably without adding an outside data source.

The Bullish Bet Gets a Real-World Test

That leaves bitcoin’s price walking a tightrope. Options traders have turned friendlier, futures carry more than $52 billion in open positions and calls comfortably outnumber puts, yet several major max-pain levels remain below spot.

And now comes the fun part. The derivatives market has placed billions of dollars around where bitcoin might go next, but the contracts cannot make bitcoin go there. Positive skew is sentiment, not a crystal ball, and $100,000 calls can be cheap lottery tickets rather than ironclad predictions.

After a year of traders paying up for protection, they are finally paying up for the possibility. Whether bitcoin follows them or not is another matter entirely.