Key points
- Bitcoin fell below $84,000 as the US 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007.
- An analyst put the odds of an October Fed hike above 70% as the Treasury prepared a bond buyback of up to $6 billion.
- Bitcoin has closed September higher for three straight years, while October has averaged a 19.92% gain, per CoinGlass data.
Bitcoin fell below $84,000 during Asian trading hours on Thursday, slipping to $83,200 after the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007.
The 10-year yield closed Wednesday at 5.11%, up from 4.96% Tuesday, and reached 5.13% intraday. CME attributed the bond selloff partly to stronger US business data and rising oil prices.
“BTC has held up well even with surging rates and a strong USD,” James Stanley, senior market analyst for global macro at FOREX.com wrote Wednesday. Stanley identified $82,833 as the next level to watch if the pullback deepens.
The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.1%, reaching its highest level since 2007. Source: TradingView
Rising Treasury yields offer investors higher returns on government debt and can raise borrowing costs, potentially weighing on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
The US Treasury announced Wednesday a $6 billion ceiling for its Thursday buyback of bonds with roughly 20 to 30 years remaining, part of an expanded program intended to improve liquidity in long-dated debt.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs add $347M as BTC falls below $84K after topping $87K
Fed hike bets test Bitcoin’s $84,000 footing
Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager at DHF Capital, said stronger US business activity and elevated energy prices had increased expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening.
“Markets now assign around a 70% probability for a hike in October, up from roughly 55% yesterday, while expectations of additional tightening over the coming months have also increased. This repricing continues to underpin both Treasury yields and the dollar,” Kooijman said in a market analysis shared with Cointelegraph on Thursday.
Less than five weeks out from the Oct. 28 meeting of US policymakers, CME Group’s Fedwatch tool shows a 75.3% probability of a hike to 4.00-4.25%
Related: Institutions held crypto through 50% drawdown, Bitwise finds
An October hike would raise short-term borrowing costs, potentially raising the cost of dollar-funded leveraged Bitcoin trades.BTC could feel the pressure before any decision if new data pushes yields and the dollar higher.
“Resilient labor data or further hawkish signals could extend the rise in yields and support the dollar, while softer figures could prompt traders to scale back expectations of an October move and limit the currency’s gains,” Kooijman said.
As “Red September” colors the leaves, Bitcoin stays green
Bitcoin traders call the months “Red September” and “Uptober” because of their opposing track records. Bitcoin fell in five straight Septembers from 2017 through 2021, while October finished higher in 10 of the 13 completed years according to data compiled by CoinGlass.
September has the lowest average return of any month in its table, at -2.34%. Source: CoinGlass
However, Bitcoin has not closed September in the red since 2022. It gained in September 2023, 2024 and 2025, and is up 7.35% so far this month.
October has averaged a 19.92% increase, second only to November. But “Uptober” failed to deliver last year, when Bitcoin fell 3.69%.
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