Stocks and shares are a safer bet than buying bitcoin? Not so fast.
According to research from crypto asset manager Grayscale, the digital coin’s realized volatility fell within the distribution of S&P 500 constituents — with a meaningful number of large-cap stocks exhibiting more price swings.
Bitcoin’s price surged in August and September, giving it its best quarter in years and leading a number of analysts to declare that it’s back in a bull market.
“As the asset has matured, with deeper liquidity, broader institutional participation, and more regulated access venues, its price swings have narrowed considerably from the extremes of its early years,” the Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, wrote in a Wednesday note.
“That shifts the question from whether to own a volatile asset to how to size an allocation.”
He added that bitcoin’s volatility has declined to 43% over the past year, from an average of 64% over the past 10 years and 81% five years ago.
It is now lower than that of 19% of S&P 500 constituents. “For those comfortable owning volatile equities, Bitcoin’s price fluctuations may be less daunting than assumed,” the report added.
December data from K33 Research revealed that 2025 was the least volatile year for the asset so far.
Bitcoin’s price became notorious for wild swings in its early days — with drawdowns of over 80% in the space of months.
But as more investors have piled into the asset — especially since the 2024 approval of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds — it’s become harder to move its price.
Still, bitcoin at one point in 2026 was down over 50% from the all-time high it hit last October . It has since recovered and was recently trading for $82,485 — 35% below its record of $126,080.
The coin in August benefited from news that the U.S. Treasury would at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations. The so-called debasement trade — where investors buy an asset to hedge against a weakening currency — has become popular again, especially as the dollar has dropped.
