Key Takeaways
- Studios are warning staff not to bet on casting, release dates, or earnings, The Hollywood Reporter said.
- BetOnline briefly pulled its next James Bond market after “sharp money” moved to Callum Turner.
Studios Bar Bets on Casting, Release Dates, and Earnings
Studios and production companies are now issuing guidelines that warn employees not to bet on prediction markets, The Hollywood Reporter said on Thursday. The rules bar bets on news such as studio earnings, casting, and release dates, and forbid passing information to friends and family who might place bets.
The outlet did not name the studios. Its own parent company, PMC, which also owns Variety, Deadline, and Dick Clark Productions, has updated its employee handbook in recent weeks to ban prediction market betting, including on “award nominations, casting decisions, production timelines, and release dates.”
The warnings come as markets on entertainment news multiply. BetOnline temporarily pulled its market on who will be cast as the next James Bond this week after “sharp money” pushed Callum Turner above longtime favorite Jack Lowden, according to a representative cited by the outlet. The swing raised internal concern that the bets might reflect a credible leak.
Insider Cases Have Already Reached Entertainment
In an enforcement action disclosed earlier this year, Kalshi fined a video editor at MrBeast’s company $20,000 over $4,000 in trades, after its surveillance flagged “near-perfect trading success on markets with low odds.” Beast Industries, which said it has “no tolerance for this behavior,” later fired the editor after an internal investigation.
The Hollywood Reporter said a Puck column in April also revealed that someone who worked on a CBS competition show had been making money through prediction markets. A TV network source told the outlet that opportunities for insider bets remain rampant, pointing to markets on what guests will say on the Tonight Show, Saturday Night Live, or other talk shows, many of which are pre-taped or have dress rehearsals.
“You now have, essentially, an explosion in the number of employers who have to think about insider trading rules from an ethical standpoint,” Joshua Mitts, a Columbia University law professor who studies prediction markets, told The Hollywood Reporter.
Bets can be hard for employers to trace to individual staff, The Hollywood Reporter noted, and Mitts said that on blockchain-based platforms, it can be “basically impossible” to catch someone who knows how to hide their identity. He added that entertainment markets, given their potential for insider trading and “low social benefit,” could be prime candidates for regulators if they decide to crack down.
Apple Adds Prediction Markets to Its Insider Trading Policy
The studios are not alone. Apple’s updated insider trading policy, filed with its annual report on Nov. 3, bars employees from using confidential information to trade on prediction markets or tipping confidential information to others who may bet. The ban applies “whether or not the activity constitutes insider trading or securities trading under applicable laws,” the policy says.
Insider betting is also drawing pressure from lawmakers and rights holders. Sens. Elizabeth Warren and John Curtis pressed Kalshi and Polymarket on how they police election insider trading in an Oct. 28 letter, and the owner of the Ballon d’Or moved to file a complaint over suspect Polymarket bets that called the award’s top five finishers.
