Expectations for an altcoin season have ramped up once again after the latest decline in the Bitcoin dominance. This decline is notable because the last time the dominance saw a similar decline, the altcoin market skyrocketed, leading to the current green phase. Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader has also pointed out a major development on the altcoin market cap chart, flashing a similar signal that led to the altcoin market rally back in 2024.
MACD Crossover Says Altcoin Season Is Coming
In an X post, the crypto analyst identified the emergence of a major MACD crossover that had preceded previous altcoin seasons. This MACD crossover was seen back in 2017 before the altcoin market took off. Then again, the MACD crossover appeared back in 2020, right before the altcoin market began its legendary rally that led into the 2021 bull season.
The most recent iterations of this major MACD crossover that led to an altcoin season were back at the beginning of 2024. When this metric crossed over from the negative into the positive, it signaled that the altcoin market was ready to take off, triggering an Ethereum price rally and then pushing the altcoin market altogether.
Once again, there has been a bullish crossover on the MACD, moving from the negative into the positive territory in the month of July. If historical performance is anything to go by, then this could mean the start of another ‘vertical expansion’. In this case, the altcoin market could balloon quickly and begin a fresh new bull rally.
Merlijn outlines in the chart shared that every market bottom has hit the trendline, which has now been completed. In the same vein, every breakout has begun with the MACD crossover, and this time is expected to be the same.
Bitcoin Dominance Crashes Again
As things like the trendline marking the bottom and the MACD crossover take hold, there is also the bullish development that is the Bitcoin dominance crashing again toward 60%. The dominance has remained above 60% for five months straight, suggesting that this is the level to beat for the altcoin season to begin.
In the month of July, altcoin bulls have tried to retest this level twice now without success. However, if the current trend continues, then it could see the Bitcoin dominance break below 60% for the first time since February 2025.
The Altcoin Season Index has also been on the rise, moving up to 44, according to data from CoinMarketCap. This means that 44 of the top 100 altcoins are now outperforming the Bitcoin price in the last 90 days. If this index is able to rise to 75, then it would mean that the altcoin season has officially begun.
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
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