Arkham Intelligence Ranks Polymarket Traders by Skill — Top Forecaster Hits 66.1% Win Rate

What Elo Measures

The new feature, called Prediction Market Elo, applies an Elo/MMR-style scoring system borrowed from chess rankings and competitive gaming matchmaking. It ranks traders based on how consistently they predict correct outcomes, not on how much money they move.

Arkham described the system at launch: “Some traders consistently win on Polymarket, bet after bet. We’ve created prediction market performance ratings (Elo) on Arkham Intel to help you find them.”

Every correct prediction raises a trader’s Elo score relative to the broader trader pool. Predictions made at lower odds carry more weight than those made at higher odds, since calling a longshot correctly signals more edge. Bet size is not factored in at all, meaning a trader with a small bankroll but a high hit rate can outrank a high- volume whale operating with lower consistency.

Who Leads the Elo Board

The Arkham leaderboard’s Rating tab shows “GardenerCx” holding the top Elo score of 2389 as of launch. The account specializes in short-term crypto up/down markets on Polymarket, trading 5-minute price direction calls. Across 2,512 resolved markets, the account carries a 66.1% win rate and a 47% return on investment (ROI), with $51.4K in realized profit on $110.7K in capital.

Arkham noted in its launch post that GardenerCx “revolves around trading crypto up/down 5-minute markets with incredible accuracy” with a win rate of 64.3% over 2,644 bets at the time of the announcement.

The second-ranked account, “roberto73,” focuses on soccer and FIFA World Cup markets, posting a 47.8% win rate across 2,835 markets with $177.8K in profit and an Elo of 2254. Third-ranked “Oliveira39” covers sports including soccer and basketball, with a 43.5% win rate over 1,817 markets and $50.1K in profit.

The PnL vs. Elo Divide

The contrast between profit-based rankings and Elo standings is one of the feature’s clearest signals. On the Top Traders tab filtered by 7-day performance, “blunttedge” leads with a 75% win rate across 1,027 trades and $8.3M in profit. “1two1two” follows with an 83.3% win rate across 2,435 trades and $5.6M in PnL.

“Swisstony,” one of the platform’s most prolific bettors, ranks third on the PnL board with a 52.9% win rate across 261,298 trades and $3.4M in recent profit. On the Elo board, the account holds a rating of 1514, placing it in the top 7% of traders but well below the accuracy leaders. Arkham noted that despite his high sizing and PnL, “his trades are less consistently profitable” compared to traders who score higher on pure forecasting accuracy.

The separation illustrates the system’s intent. PnL leaderboards can be driven by position size and volume. The Elo board surfaces traders who get outcomes right consistently, regardless of how much capital they deploy.

Background and Access

Arkham first launched a full Prediction Markets analytics suite in early May 2026. That suite included PnL-based leaderboards, individual trader profiles with full position history and win rate graphs, real-time trade feeds filterable by category, and deep integration with Arkham’s entity database, which contains more than 3.5 billion address labels and over 800,000 verified entities.

The Elo feature builds directly on that foundation as an accuracy layer sitting alongside existing profit-based tools.

What It Means for Traders

Prediction market volume on platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi has grown steadily through 2026. Until now, leaderboard visibility has gone primarily to the largest bettors and biggest PnL names. The Elo system gives researchers and traders a way to identify forecasters with documented skill, a cleaner signal for those looking to follow or analyze consistent edge rather than raw profit.