Bitcoin Bull Cycle Peak Could Be Driven by Global ETF Demand

Global ETF Demand Could Shape Bitcoin’s Cycle Peak

The peak of bitcoin’s current bull cycle could be driven by institutional capital and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) outside the United States, according to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of Cryptoquant, a cryptocurrency market analytics platform. He presented the forecast in an Aug. 27 post on X, identifying international market access as a potential source of demand after U.S. products helped broaden regulated exposure.

Ju stated:

“The peak of this bull cycle will likely be driven by institutional money and ETFs outside the US.”

He pointed to South Korea as an example of the barriers that remain outside the United States. He said the country has no spot bitcoin ETF, retail investors cannot buy foreign-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, and most companies remain unable to open exchange accounts to purchase BTC. South Korea has started allowing corporate participation in stages, and a Financial Services Commission (FSC) roadmap sets out a phase for about 3,500 listed companies and qualified professional investors. Financial companies and other corporations remain excluded from that framework.

Ju illustrated how widespread retail access could signal the cycle’s peak: “This cycle’s top might be when a banker at a regional bank in Korea recommends a spot bitcoin ETF to a granny for her savings.”

The forecast shifts attention from U.S. fund flows toward markets where regulated bitcoin investment products remain unavailable or have limited distribution. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot bitcoin exchange-traded products in January 2024, allowing investors to obtain exposure through conventional brokerage and investment accounts. Ju argues that comparable access elsewhere could broaden participation during the cycle’s next stage.

Institutions Build Bitcoin and Tokenization Infrastructure

Institutional adoption already extends beyond direct bitcoin purchases and spot ETF holdings, although access and service offerings remain uneven. Strategy’s Bitcoin Banking Adoption Index assessed 25 major institutions across trading, custody, digital asset products, financing, and corporate participation. The bank adoption rankings placed overall adoption at 32%, showing considerable room for banks to expand their digital asset capabilities.

Tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) could provide another component of the financial infrastructure Ju expects to support wider adoption. As of Aug. 29, RWA.xyz’s Global Market Overview showed distributed asset value at $38.63 billion, up 2.65% from 30 days earlier. Such products, which form part of the tokenized RWA market, move claims on assets, including government securities and private credit, onto blockchain-based systems for issuance, settlement, and transfer.

Stablecoin Liquidity Could Support Broader Market Access

Deeper stablecoin markets could give institutions more liquidity for trading, settlement, and cross-border transfers as regulated access expands. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said stablecoins demonstrate some potential for faster, programmable payments, while warning that current designs can create financial integrity, liquidity, and monetary risks. Its assessment shows that expanding on-chain financial infrastructure does not eliminate regulatory or operational concerns.

Bitcoin’s fixed supply limit and decentralized settlement remain separate from the regulated funds and tokenized financial rails that provide investor access. Expanded ETF distribution may broaden access to bitcoin without changing the network’s underlying design. Ju expects both investment access and supporting infrastructure to spread beyond the U.S. market.

His characterization follows rapid U.S. bitcoin ETF adoption, with spot funds accumulating about $57 billion in net inflows during their first two years. “So far this has been a US adoption story, but the next phase is global institutionalization with deeper stablecoin liquidity and RWA rails,” Ju noted, adding:

“More institutions will hold BTC as a strategic asset, and access will improve in the many countries that still lack ETFs.”

The forecast focuses on broader international ETF availability, institutional holdings, and blockchain-based financial infrastructure as conditions that could shape bitcoin’s next stage of adoption.